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Industry View2014 Outlook Reduced AgainThe Croatian economy is set to recover in 2014, but after five consecutive years of retrenchment (negativeor zero growth), BMI is projecting a very weak and slow improvement. On the plus side, sentiment hasbeen boosted by accession to the European Union in mid-2013; tourism is performing well, and householdconsumption is edging back into positive territory. On the negative side Croatia already finds itself inpolitical dispute with the EU (over its failure to implement a European Arrest Warrant); investment andgovernment spending remains constrained; and unemployment remains stubbornly high at 16.9%. Althoughinflows of EU money following accession should support infrastructure development over the long term,inefficient policy implementation is likely to delay its impact on investment spending in 2014. The exportoutlook remains weak, so we expect the trade deficit to widen in 2014, acting as further drag on growth.Weighing up these factors, we are maintaining our estimate for GDP contraction of 0.4% in 2013, followedby growth of only 0.6% in 2014 (down from our forecast of 1.1% in our last quarterly shipping report).Looking at the ports and shipping sector, we believe annual bulk cargo percentage growth will remain in thelow single digits, in line with a slow and rather painful recovery and a continuing weak tradeperformance. The largely import and transit-led box traffic outlook is more encouraging, with growth in thehigher single digits (between 5% and 10% per annum). This at least in part reflects the country's role as aregional gateway for transit trade. On the whole, we do not believe bulk tonnage handled at Croatia's mainports will exceed the record levels achieved back in 2007/08. On the container side, however, we see steadygrowth boosted by regional import demand.
Industry View 7SWOT 8Industry Forecast 10Czech Republic Snapshot 10Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data 10Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10Czech Republic Power Forecast Scenario 11Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 11Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 12Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 14Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 16Electricity Consumption 20Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 20Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 20Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 21Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011 -2016 21Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022 21Table: Czech Republic Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011 -2016 21Table: Czech Republic Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 21Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 23CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings 23Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings, (Scores Out Of 100) 28Czech Republic Power Risk/Reward Ratings 28Rewards 28Risks 29Market Overview 30Key Policies And Market Structure 30Regulation And Competition 30Sustainable Energy Policies 32Pricing 33Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of March 2013 34Czech Republic Power Projects Database 35Table: Major Projects - Power 35Competitive Landscape 37CEZ 38CEPS 38PRE 38EON 38Company Profile 39?EZ 39Regional Overview 43CEE Regional Overview 43Glossary 49Table: Glossary Of Terms 49Methodology 50Industry Forecast Methodology 50Source 53Risk Reward Rating Methodology 53Table: Power Risk Reward Rating Indicators 54Table: Weighting Of Indicators 56