Croatia Shipping Report

 Published On: Dec, 2013 |    No of Pages: 104 |  Published By: BMI Shipping | Format: PDF
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Industry View
2014 Outlook Reduced Again
The Croatian economy is set to recover in 2014, but after five consecutive years of retrenchment (negative
or zero growth), BMI is projecting a very weak and slow improvement. On the plus side, sentiment has
been boosted by accession to the European Union in mid-2013; tourism is performing well, and household
consumption is edging back into positive territory. On the negative side Croatia already finds itself in
political dispute with the EU (over its failure to implement a European Arrest Warrant); investment and
government spending remains constrained; and unemployment remains stubbornly high at 16.9%. Although
inflows of EU money following accession should support infrastructure development over the long term,
inefficient policy implementation is likely to delay its impact on investment spending in 2014. The export
outlook remains weak, so we expect the trade deficit to widen in 2014, acting as further drag on growth.
Weighing up these factors, we are maintaining our estimate for GDP contraction of 0.4% in 2013, followed
by growth of only 0.6% in 2014 (down from our forecast of 1.1% in our last quarterly shipping report).
Looking at the ports and shipping sector, we believe annual bulk cargo percentage growth will remain in the
low single digits, in line with a slow and rather painful recovery and a continuing weak trade
performance. The largely import and transit-led box traffic outlook is more encouraging, with growth in the
higher single digits (between 5% and 10% per annum). This at least in part reflects the country's role as a
regional gateway for transit trade. On the whole, we do not believe bulk tonnage handled at Croatia's main
ports will exceed the record levels achieved back in 2007/08. On the container side, however, we see steady
growth boosted by regional import demand.

Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 10
Czech Republic Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Czech Republic Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 11
Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 12
Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 14
Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 16
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 20
Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 20
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 21
Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011 -2016 21
Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022 21
Table: Czech Republic Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011 -2016 21
Table: Czech Republic Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 21
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 23
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings, (Scores Out Of 100) 28
Czech Republic Power Risk/Reward Ratings 28
Rewards 28
Risks 29
Market Overview 30
Key Policies And Market Structure 30
Regulation And Competition 30
Sustainable Energy Policies 32
Pricing 33
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of March 2013 34
Czech Republic Power Projects Database 35
Table: Major Projects - Power 35
Competitive Landscape 37
CEZ 38
PRE 38
EON 38
Company Profile 39
?EZ 39
Regional Overview 43
CEE Regional Overview 43
Glossary 49
Table: Glossary Of Terms 49
Methodology 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Source 53
Risk Reward Rating Methodology 53
Table: Power Risk Reward Rating Indicators 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 56

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