Japan Shipping Report

 Published On: Oct, 2013 |    No of Pages: 136 |  Published By: BMI Shipping | Format: PDF
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Recovery in 2013 Will Lose Impetus In 2014
Since our last quarterly report Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has strengthened his position, given that after the
Senate elections in July he now controls a majority in both the Upper and Lower Houses. The first two
instalments of 'Abenomics' - economic policy announcements that eased monetary policy and provided a
fiscal stimulus - have been pro-growth. BMI has consequently edged up its GDP forecast for 2013 to 1.8%
(up from 1.4% in our last report). However, we are less optimistic about the upcoming third instalment (or
'Third Arrow' as it is known), which is intended to focus on industrial revitalisation. The government's
intention appears to be to use tax incentives and credits to aid industrial consolidation in areas such as
consumer electronics, to help Japanese companies compete more effectively on the global stage. However,
there seems to be little appetite to tackle high domestic costs or to reduce staffing levels: Western-style
redundancies remain socially unacceptable. Because of this we see the strength of the recovery beginning to
fade next year with growth falling to 1.3%. On balance we believe that the economic improvements will
fade in 2014 and, instead, heighten worries surrounding the country's precarious fiscal position.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Port of Nagoya tonnage forecast to grow by 3.5% to reach 209.727mn tonnes, slower than the 8.8%
growth rate achieved the preceding year. Box traffic at the same port will grow by 1.0% to 2.681mn
twenty-foot equivalents (TEUs).

Industry View 7
Shipping 9
Political 10
Economic 11
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast 14
Port of Tokyo Throughput 14
Port of Yokohama Throughput 18
Table: Major Port Data 23
Table: Trade Overview 24
Table: Key Trade Indicators 24
Table: TOP IMPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2011, US$mn 26
Table: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2011, US$mn 27
Market Overview 28
Japan Container Shipping Market Overview 28
Industry Trends And Developments 36
Japan Company Profile 40
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd (K Line) 40
NYK Container Line 43
Mitsui OSK Lines 46
Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK Line) Tankers 53
NYK Dry Bulk 59
Shipping - Global Industry View 63
Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope 63
Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries 65
Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans 66
Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders 73
Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch 74
Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 81
Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 81
Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter 81
Global Company Strategy 92
Maersk Line 92
Mediterranean Shipping Company 101
Evergreen Line 115
COSCO Container Lines Company 122
Macroeconomic Forecasts 128
Macroeconomic Forecast 128
Short On Details, Long On Implementation Timeframe 129
Key Areas Left Untouched 131
Fiscal Rehabilitation Questionable 132
Table: Japan - Economic Activity 132
Demographic Forecast 133
Demographic Forecast 133
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 134
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 134
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 135
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 136

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