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Recovery in 2013 Will Lose Impetus In 2014Since our last quarterly report Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has strengthened his position, given that after theSenate elections in July he now controls a majority in both the Upper and Lower Houses. The first twoinstalments of 'Abenomics' - economic policy announcements that eased monetary policy and provided afiscal stimulus - have been pro-growth. BMI has consequently edged up its GDP forecast for 2013 to 1.8%(up from 1.4% in our last report). However, we are less optimistic about the upcoming third instalment (or'Third Arrow' as it is known), which is intended to focus on industrial revitalisation. The government'sintention appears to be to use tax incentives and credits to aid industrial consolidation in areas such asconsumer electronics, to help Japanese companies compete more effectively on the global stage. However,there seems to be little appetite to tackle high domestic costs or to reduce staffing levels: Western-styleredundancies remain socially unacceptable. Because of this we see the strength of the recovery beginning tofade next year with growth falling to 1.3%. On balance we believe that the economic improvements willfade in 2014 and, instead, heighten worries surrounding the country's precarious fiscal position.Headline Industry Data - 2013 Port of Nagoya tonnage forecast to grow by 3.5% to reach 209.727mn tonnes, slower than the 8.8%growth rate achieved the preceding year. Box traffic at the same port will grow by 1.0% to 2.681mntwenty-foot equivalents (TEUs).
Industry View 7SWOT 9Shipping 9Political 10Economic 11Business Environment 12Industry Forecast 14Port of Tokyo Throughput 14Port of Yokohama Throughput 18Table: Major Port Data 23Table: Trade Overview 24Table: Key Trade Indicators 24Table: TOP IMPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2011, US$mn 26Table: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2011, US$mn 27Market Overview 28Japan Container Shipping Market Overview 28Industry Trends And Developments 36Japan Company Profile 40Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd (K Line) 40NYK Container Line 43Mitsui OSK Lines 46Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK Line) Tankers 53NYK Dry Bulk 59Shipping - Global Industry View 63Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope 63Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries 65Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans 66Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders 73Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch 74Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 81Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 81Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter 81Global Company Strategy 92Maersk Line 92Mediterranean Shipping Company 101CMA CGM 106Evergreen Line 115COSCO Container Lines Company 122Macroeconomic Forecasts 128Macroeconomic Forecast 128Short On Details, Long On Implementation Timeframe 129Key Areas Left Untouched 131Fiscal Rehabilitation Questionable 132Table: Japan - Economic Activity 132Demographic Forecast 133Demographic Forecast 133Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 134Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 134Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 135Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 136