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Slight Pick-up In Port Activity Levels ExpectedThe Pakistani economy achieved a strong 5.0% GDP growth rate in July-September 2013, the first quarterof the 2013/14 financial year (which runs from July to June). We expect growth to ease back in subsequentquarters as the fiscal tightening recommended by the IMF and needed to correct imbalanced public sectoraccounts goes ahead. We are now forecasting 3.4% GDP growth in 2013/14, rising to 4.0% in 2014/15.Despite the unavoidable need for a fiscal correction, we remain quite optimistic about Pakistan's economicoutlook. While the agricultural sector has lagged, there has solid growth in manufacturing output, despite arather unexciting performance on the export front. We think the explanation lies in a surge of remittancerevenues sent back home from expatriate Pakistanis, which has boosted domestic demand. While theeconomy continues to have weak points (like poor investment levels) we believe the fiscal correction willreduce the public sector 'crowding out effect' and allow credit to flow more freely to private sectorborrowers.Given our GDP growth forecast for 2013/14, which was lower than the preceding year, we trimmed backthe levels of activity we expect in Pakistan's main ports. We are holding to that lower projection. That said,however, it needs to be noted that cargo handling will still be a little busier than in the preceding year,boosted by growing foreign trade.
Industry View 7SWOT 10Shipping 10Political 11Economic 13Business Environment 14Industry Forecast 15Port Of Karachi Throughput 15Port Of Qasim Throughput 19Table: Major Port Data 23Table: Trade Overview 24Table: Key Trade Indicators 24Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2011 25Table: Main Export Destinations, 2004-2011 26Market Overview 27Pakistan Container Shipping Market Overview 27Industry Trends And Developments 33Company Profile 36Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) 36Shipping - Global Industry View 38Container Demand: Growth Outlook To Bolster 2014 Box Volumes 38Container Supply: Overcapacity To Remain An Issue In 2014 48Container Rates: Volatile As Demand Ticks Up, But Oversupply Remains 57Table: Shipping Lines' Agents Offices Raided In Russia 62Global Company Strategy 65Maersk Line 65Mediterranean Shipping Company 75CMA CGM 81Evergreen Line 90COSCO Container Lines Company 98Macroeconomic Forecasts 104Economic Analysis 104Table: PAKISTAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 108Demographic Forecast 109Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 110Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 111Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 112Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 112