Taiwan Shipping Report

 Published On: Oct, 2013 |    No of Pages: 119 |  Published By: BMI Shipping | Format: PDF
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Another Downward Revision Of Taiwan Growth Forecasts
Over the last three months we have once more cut back our growth forecasts for Taiwan. We now expect
GDP growth of 2.1% this year (down from 3.0% previously) and 3.0% in 2014 (down from 4.0%). There
are two main reasons for the more conservative outlook. First, despite a promising recovery in foreign trade
in June, BMI believes Taiwan remain very exposed to the economy of mainland China, which continues to
show progressive weakness. We are also concerned that China's 12th Five Year Plan suggests much tougher
competition for Taiwan's semiconductor and flat-panel manufacturing sectors. While the ASEAN region
may provide further support to trade in the quarters ahead, China's weakness and the adverse effects on
Taiwan are likely to win out. Second, the domestic economy has also been soft. Industrial production has
been in contraction and retail sales growth is on a downtrend. On the plus side, we expect a return in
investments from mainland-based Taiwanese businesses, which will boost the island economy, but this
process will take some time, and we have not yet seen hard evidence of it in the data.
Slower economic growth this year puts port activity levels into a standstill position, with some falls in bulk
tonnage and some small gains in box traffic. Broadly speaking Kaohsiung, Taiwan's largest port, remains
the most resilient, not least because it is attracting new investment. But gross tonnage handled will drop
marginally, while container handling will increase, also marginally. Keelung, the country's second largest
port, will see further falls after a difficult 2012. On the plus side, the policy of cross-straits integration is
expected to continue as Taiwan's ports and shipping lines position themselves to work through a series of
alliances and partnerships with mainland companies over the next few years.

Industry View 7
BMI Industry View 7
Shipping 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Port Of Kaohsiung Throughput 14
Table: Major Port Data 22
Table: Trade Overview 23
Table: Key Trade Indicators 23
Market Overview 25
Taiwan Container Shipping Market Overview 25
Industry Trends And Developments 35
Industry Trends And Developments 35
Taiwan Company Profile 38
Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation 38
Wan Hai Lines 41
Cheng Lie Navigation Company (CNC Line) 44
Shipping - Global Industry View 47
Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope 47
Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries 49
Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans 50
Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders 57
Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch 58
Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 65
Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 65
Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter 65
Global Company Strategy 76
Maersk Line 76
Mediterranean Shipping Company 85
Evergreen Line 99
COSCO Container Lines Company 106
Macroeconomic Forecasts 111
Economic Analysis 111
A Recap Of China's 12th Five Year Plan 111
Taiwan's Growing Dependence On China 112
Sectoral Implications: Long-Term Risks To Semiconductors, Flat-Panel Manufacturers 113
Macro Picture: Medium-Term Upside Still Possible 114
China Still A Long Term Threat 116
Downgrading Our S-T Growth Forecast 117
Private Consumption 118
Government Consumption 118
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 118
Net Exports 118
Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity 119

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