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Another Downward Revision Of Taiwan Growth ForecastsOver the last three months we have once more cut back our growth forecasts for Taiwan. We now expectGDP growth of 2.1% this year (down from 3.0% previously) and 3.0% in 2014 (down from 4.0%). Thereare two main reasons for the more conservative outlook. First, despite a promising recovery in foreign tradein June, BMI believes Taiwan remain very exposed to the economy of mainland China, which continues toshow progressive weakness. We are also concerned that China's 12th Five Year Plan suggests much toughercompetition for Taiwan's semiconductor and flat-panel manufacturing sectors. While the ASEAN regionmay provide further support to trade in the quarters ahead, China's weakness and the adverse effects onTaiwan are likely to win out. Second, the domestic economy has also been soft. Industrial production hasbeen in contraction and retail sales growth is on a downtrend. On the plus side, we expect a return ininvestments from mainland-based Taiwanese businesses, which will boost the island economy, but thisprocess will take some time, and we have not yet seen hard evidence of it in the data.Slower economic growth this year puts port activity levels into a standstill position, with some falls in bulktonnage and some small gains in box traffic. Broadly speaking Kaohsiung, Taiwan's largest port, remainsthe most resilient, not least because it is attracting new investment. But gross tonnage handled will dropmarginally, while container handling will increase, also marginally. Keelung, the country's second largestport, will see further falls after a difficult 2012. On the plus side, the policy of cross-straits integration isexpected to continue as Taiwan's ports and shipping lines position themselves to work through a series ofalliances and partnerships with mainland companies over the next few years.
Industry View 7BMI Industry View 7SWOT 9Shipping 9Political 11Economic 12Business Environment 13Industry Forecast 14Port Of Kaohsiung Throughput 14Table: Major Port Data 22Table: Trade Overview 23Table: Key Trade Indicators 23Market Overview 25Taiwan Container Shipping Market Overview 25Industry Trends And Developments 35Industry Trends And Developments 35Taiwan Company Profile 38Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation 38Wan Hai Lines 41Cheng Lie Navigation Company (CNC Line) 44Shipping - Global Industry View 47Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope 47Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries 49Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans 50Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders 57Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch 58Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 65Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 65Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter 65Global Company Strategy 76Maersk Line 76Mediterranean Shipping Company 85CMA CGM 90Evergreen Line 99COSCO Container Lines Company 106Macroeconomic Forecasts 111Economic Analysis 111A Recap Of China's 12th Five Year Plan 111Taiwan's Growing Dependence On China 112Sectoral Implications: Long-Term Risks To Semiconductors, Flat-Panel Manufacturers 113Macro Picture: Medium-Term Upside Still Possible 114China Still A Long Term Threat 116Downgrading Our S-T Growth Forecast 117Private Consumption 118Government Consumption 118Gross Fixed Capital Formation 118Net Exports 118Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity 119