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BMI View: As Ukraine ' s economy is headed for a second consecutive year of a
major recession, 2015 will be a tough year for Ukraine's shipping sector, with
BMI predicting declines in container throughput at Ukraine's main ports of
Odessa and Illichivsk .
Box volumes in 2015 will be negatively impacted by a projected second year of
recession in Ukraine, with BMI forecasting real GDP to drop 7.2% following the
estimated 6.8% decline in 2014. The increase in traffic is unlikely to
materialise in at least the medium term, with BMI forecasting Ukraine's economy
to grow by an average of 0.5% per year between 2015 and 2019. Meanwhile, at the
port of Illichivsk, a long-running legal dispute resumed, threatening operations
of privately-owned container terminal operator.
Total tonnage throughput, however, will be supported at both ports by the
projected increase in wheat production, with the two facilities both
participating in the country's grain export supply chain. Ukraine's ports also
stand to benefit from new cargo opportunities opening up, to develop their role
in Ukraine's coal import logistics, as the country's domestic coal supply chains
have been interrupted by the fighting in eastern Ukraine.
As a result of the decline in deliveries of coal, a key fuel source for
Ukraine's power sector, the country now has to import coal from South Africa.
The first delivery of imported coal into Ukraine happened at the end of 2014 and
its ports are projected to play a greater role in this supply chain.'
Headline Industry Data
2015 port of Odessa tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3%, over the medium term
we project a 10% increase.
2015 port of Odessa container throughput forecast to decrease by 9%, over the
medium term we project a 0.5% increase.
2015 total trade growth forecast at -12.2%.
BMI Industry View7
Ukraine - Q2 20157
Port Of Odessa Throughput - Ukraine - Q2 201516
Port Of Illichivsk Throughput - Ukraine - Q2 201519
Table: Major Ports Data (Ukraine 2012-2019)22
Table: Trade Overview (Ukraine 2012-2019)23
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Ukraine 2012-2019)23
Table: Top Import Partners, 2006-201325
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-201325
Ukraine Container Shipping Market Overview27
Ukraine Company Profile31
HPC Ukraina - Q2 201531
Shipping - Global Industry View34
Container Lines To Prosper In 201534
Global Company Strategy39
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)50
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)73
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown83
Risks To Outlook87
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Ukraine 2011-2018)87
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)89
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)89
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)90
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)90
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)91