East Asian Containerport Markets to 2025

 Published On: Mar, 2013 |  Published By: Ocean Shipping Consultants | Format: PDF
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The East Asian containerport market grew by 9 per cent in 2011 and some 5 per cent in 2012, reaching 325m TEU. Growth has been strongest in northeast and east China, and the ASEAN countries.

Recent expansion in these port regions has been driven by strong growth in intra-Asian trades, whilst some ports in south China, as well as Hong Kong, have been most affected by lacklustre east-west trades and a shift in export manufacturing industries to the Chinese interior and southeast Asia.

There are consequently continuing requirements for port investment in the growth regions. Even ports with relatively slow demand growth present a need for investment to meet the changing structure of regional demand. These include:

■ The introduction of much larger vessels up to 18,000 TEU. Water depth, quay
   length, port access and the consignment sizes handled by terminals represent major issues that must be addressed to maintain competitive position.

■ Increasing transshipment demand to serve the plethora of smaller ports entering the container handling market. It is not sufficient to handle larger vessels quickly.    Shortsea and feeder ships also have to be accommodated efficiently.

■ The need to configure terminals to handle more laden imports as growing prosperity increases consumer demand generally.

■ The need to increase productivity to optimise the use of assets in current financial conditions.
 
The development of containerport throughput is detailed by port, country and region in this study. It presents separate forecasts of gateway and transshipment demand to 2025, based on three economic scenarios.

The forecast distribution of transshipment is related to the relative advantages of different ports, carriers’ decisions and capacity availability.

Ongoing and planned investment projects are reviewed in detail. Containerport capacity and resulting supply/demand balances are forecast to 2020.

Ports in the following regions are covered:

■ Northeast Asia:with Japan, Korea, Far East Russia and Northeast China;

■ ‘Central’ East Asia:East and South China, Taiwan and Hong Kong;

■ Southeast Asia:Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines,    Myanmar, Cambodia and Brunei.

This study provides a detailed outlook of regional demand and investment requirements.

It is a definitive reference work for hard-to-find characteristics, key specifications and capacity of container handling facilities throughout East Asia.

Section 1 - Introduction

Section 2 - Driving Forces and Market Overview

This Section considers the factors affecting the scale and nature of containerport demand in East Asia.

It provides an overview of the development of containerport demand, including the transshipment market. Thestudy’s forecasts of gateway and transshipment demand, capacity and resultant supply/demand balances by port region are summarised. 

Section 3 - Container Handling Demand Analysis
Container handling demand has grown most rapidly at ports in northeast China. A focus on intra-Asian trades and the continued containerisation of bulk cargoes have underpinned this expansion. Positive growth has also been maintained in South Korea, Far East Russia and Japan.

Local export industries, intermodal development and growing feeder links have sustained double-digit demand growth at some east Chinese ports. The transformation of the Yangtze River into an artery of container trade for China’s interior provinces will be a major factor in future growth.

The recent picture for ports in south China has been mixed, based primarily on the degree of dependence on trade with Europe and North America relative to intra-Asian and other trades. Hong Kong and Chiwan have been most adversely impacted by shifts in local manufacturing, whilst Shekou has continued to thrive. Transshipment and cross-straits trade with China has sustained growth at Taiwanese ports.

In southeast Asia, containerport demand growth has been positive in all countries, with intra-Asian trade and transshipment playing leading parts. 

Section 4 - Forecast Containerport Demand to 2025

Three economic cases are employed in forecasting demand: base case, enhanced-recovery case and continued-instability case.

The historical relationships between GDP growth and gateway container handling demand growth are examined, and gateway demand is forecast for each country and port region.

The relation of transshipment with regional gateway demand is used to forecast transshipment. In assessing the distribution of transshipment between countries, consideration is given to their competitive advantages and transshipment capacity availability.

Gateway and transshipment forecasts are combined to generate aggregate container handling demand forecasts by port and country.

Section 5 - Container Handling Capabilities and Investment Plans

This Section provides a comprehensive picture of existing container handling capabilities and capacity at ports in East Asia, and includes major Yangtze River developments.

There are major investment plans and requirements in the established port markets, both to increase capacity and to provide the capability to handle the largest containerships.

Investment is also taking place or in prospect in emerging markets, such as Indonesia, where longdelayed programmes are beginning to be implemented, and Myanmar, where plans for major coastal ports are in train.

Ongoing and planned containerport investment is reviewed by port for the countries and regions under consideration.

This represents a major and original data-gathering exercise, with hard-to-discover facts and details about important but little-publicised developments.

Section 6 - Forecast Containerport Capacity to 2020

Anticipated capacity development by port is aggregated to provide national and regional
forecasts of containerport capacity.

A fairly comprehensive picture of prospective capacity can be derived by this means in the short-medium term.

However, the nature and scheduling of future investment becomes increasingly less certain over time; the
timing of the further investment will largely depend on the pace of demand growth. Hence, in this study,
investment and capacity are forecast to 2020.

Section 7 - Future Container Handling Supply/Demand Balance

With a few notable exceptions, container handling supply/demand balances remain quite tight
in most parts of East Asia, despite recent slower demand growth.

In this Section, forecast demand is combined with anticipated capacity development to
reveal prospective supply/demand balances and capacity utilisation for each country to 2020,
for the three demand cases.

Even given current investment plans, there is likely to be a requirement for additional investment in order to
sustain potential demand growth.

There remain significant opportunities for investment, despite uncertainties in the world economic outlook.
These opportunities are spotlighted in this study.


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