Middle East Containerport Markets To 2025

 Published On: Nov, 2013 |  Published By: Ocean Shipping Consultants | Format: PDF
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Containerport throughput in the Middle East increased by 250 per cent over 2001-12, to 36m TEU. Earnings from exports of oil have created the prosperity which has driven demand for containerised goods - the mainstay of container trade in this port region. More recently, burgeoning petrochemicals sectors and industrial zones have generated containerised exports, as well as imports of intermediate products. There are continuing requirements for port investment, not only to increase capacity, but also to accommodate increasingly large vessels. There is also a requirement to configure terminals to handle more laden export containers, as nations invest in export industries, benefiting from cheap, local oil feedstocks, and/or diversify from oil, so as to extend the industrial base.

The Middle East is a major centre of transshipment – it accounts for 47 per cent of regional containerport throughput. As well as forecasting transshipment, this study explores the consequences on transshipment demand of an increase in direct services at medium-sized ports, making use of large vessels displaced by the incoming generation of 18,000 TEU-plus containerships.

The study considers the forces driving containerport demand in the Middle East and the outlook to 2025. The development of containerport throughput is detailed by port, country and region. Gateway and transshipment demand are forecast by country, based on three economic scenarios and an “increased direct-services” case.

Ongoing and planned investment projects are reviewed by port. Containerport capacity and resulting supply/demand balances are forecast by country to 2020.

The following port regions are covered:
-Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman: United Arab Emirates, Iran, Eastern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Northern Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and Iraq.
-Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden: Southern Oman, Southern Yemen, Djibouti and Horn of Africa;
-Red Sea: Western Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Southern Israel, Eastern Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea and Western Yemen.



This Section considers the factors affecting the scale and nature of containerport demand. It provides an overview of the development of containerport demand, including the important Middle East transshipment markets. The relation of transshipment with regional economic growth is used to forecast regional transshipment. An “increased-direct services” case is used to explore the effects of shipping-line strategies to increase the role of direct services at medium-sized ports.

The study’s forecasts of gateway and transshipment demand, capacity and resultant supply/demand balances are summarised by port region.

Container handling demand has grown most rapidly in the Arabian Gulf / Gulf of Oman port region. This has been driven mainly by containerised imports and transshipment. There is also a small, but growing export sector.

In the Arabian Sea range, transshipment is the principal driver. This comprises both huband-spoke and relay sectors, serving the Middle East itself, South Asia, East Africa and Indian Ocean islands.

The Red Sea port region has a mixture of gateway and transshipment business. Both are set to increase, as a result of port investment on both seaboards. The container trade structure could also alter when the planned cross-Saudi railway is completed, linking eastand west-coast ports.

Three economic cases are employed in forecasting gateway demand:
• Base case
• Enhanced-recovery case
• Continued-instability case.

The historical relationships between GDP growth and gateway container handling demand growth are examined, and gateway demand is forecast for each country and port region.

Using the regional transshipment forecasts from Section Two, the distribution of transshipment between countries is assessed, according to their ports’ competitive advantages for transshipment and capacity availability.
Gateway and transshipment forecasts are combined to generate aggregate container handling demand forecasts by country.

This Section provides a comprehensive picture of existing container handling capabilities and capacity at ports in the Middle East.
There are continuing major investment plans and requirements, both to increase capacity and to provide the capability to handle the largest containerships.
Ongoing and planned containerport investment is reviewed by port for the countries and regions under consideration.

Anticipated capacity development by port is aggregated to provide national and regional forecasts of containerport capacity.

A fairly comprehensive picture of prospective capacity can be derived by this means in the short-medium term. However, the nature and scheduling of future investment becomes increasingly less certain over time; the timing of the further investment will largely depend on the pace of demand growth. Hence, in this study, investment and capacity are forecast to 2020.

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