Asia - Telecom Forecasts

 Published On: Jan, 2015 |    No of Pages: 73 |  Published By: Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd | Format: PDF
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As the mobile market across Asia shifts to new generation services, growth in total mobile subscriber numbers moderates

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we consider to be the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country and market segment.

The scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2015 and 2020.

Malaysia - Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020

Year Lower growth scenario Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) Penetration Subscribers (million) Penetration
2011 4.1 14.2% 4.1 14.2%
2012 3.9 13.3% 3.9 13.3%
2013 (actual) 3.7 12.6% 3.7 12.6%
2015 3.5 11.8% 3.9 13.1%
2020 3.2 9.8% 4.3 13.2%


Malaysia -Forecast broadband internet subscribers - 2015; 2020

Year Lower growth scenario Higher growth scenario
Subscribers1

(million)

HH Penetration Subscribers1 (million) HH Penetration
2011 5.7 62% 5.7 62%
2012 6.4 66% 6.4 66%
2013 (actual) 6.4 67% 6.4 67%
2015 8.0 70% 13.5 75%
2020 11.0 80% 22.0 100%


Malaysia - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020

Year Lower growth scenario Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) Penetration Subscribers (million) Penetration
2011 36.7 128% 36.7 128%
2012 41.3 142% 41.3 142%
2013 (actual) 43.0 145% 43.0 145%
2015 45.0 148% 49.0 161%
2020 50.0 152% 60.0 182%

1. Background Notes Relevant to our Market Forecasts
2. Afghanistan
2.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
2.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
2.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
3. Azerbaijan
3.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
3.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
3.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
4. Bangladesh
4.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
4.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
4.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
5. Cambodia
5.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
5.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
5.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
6. China
6.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2013-2018
6.2 Forecast broadband subscribers 2013-2018
6.3 Forecast: Total mobile subscribers 2013-2014; 2018
6.4 Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers
7. Georgia
7.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
7.2 Forecasts internet subscribers 2015; 2020
7.3 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
8. Hong Kong
8.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers 2014; 2018
8.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: - 2014; 2018
8.3 Forecast total mobile and 3G subscribers 2014; 2018
9. India
9.1 Forecasts - fixed-line services 2015; 2020
9.2 Forecasts- internet services 2015; 2020
9.3 Forecasts - Mobile services 2015; 2020
10. Indonesia
10.1 Forecasts fixed-line market: 2015; 2020
10.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
10.3 Forecasts mobile market: 2015; 2020
11. Japan
11.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers 2013 - 2014; 2018
11.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: 2012-2013; 2017
11.3 Forecast FttX subscribers: 2017; 2020
11.4 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2012-2018
12. Kazakhstan
12.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
12.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
12.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
13. Kyrgyzstan
13.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
13.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
13.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
14. Laos
14.1 Forecasts fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
14.2 Forecasts internet services - 2015; 2020
14.3 Forecasts mobile services - 2015; 2020
15. Macau
15.1 Forecast mobile subscribers 2014; 2018
16. Malaysia
16.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
16.2 Forecasts broadband internet services 2015; 2020
16.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
17. Nepal
17.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
17.2 Forecasts Internet services 2015; 2020
17.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
18. Pakistan
18.1 Forecast fixed line market 2015; 2020
18.2 Forecasts Internet market 2015; 2020
18.3 Forecast mobile market 2015; 2020
19. Philippines
19.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
19.2 Forecasts Internet services 2015; 2020
19.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
20. South Korea
20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2012 - 2013; 2017
20.2 Forecast broadband subscribers 2011 - 2012; 2017
20.3 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2012- 2013; 2017
21. Sri Lanka
21.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
21.2 Forecasts Internet services 2015; 2020
21.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
22. Taiwan
22.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2013 (actual); 2014 and 2018
22.2 Forecast fixed broadband subscribers 2013 (actual); 2014, 2018
22.3 Forecast total mobile subscribers 2013 (actual); 2014, 2018
22.4 Forecast 3G mobile subscribers 2013 (actual); 2014, 2018
23. Thailand
23.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
23.2 Forecasts internet subscribers 2015; 2020
23.3 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
24. Uzbekistan
24.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
24.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
24.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
25. Vietnam
25.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
25.2 Forecasts broadband internet services 2015; 2020
25.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
Table 1 Afghanistan Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 2 Afghanistan Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 3 Afghanistan Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 4 Azerbaijan Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 5 Azerbaijan Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 6 Azerbaijan Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 7 Bangladesh Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 8 Bangladesh Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 9 Bangladesh Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 10 Cambodia Forecast fixed-line growth 2015; 2020
Table 11 Cambodia Forecast fixed internet subscriber growth 2015; 2020
Table 12 Cambodia Forecast mobile subscriber growth 2015; 2020
Table 13 China Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration lower band: 2014; 2018
Table 14 China Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration higher band: 2014; 2018
Table 15 China Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration lower band: 2014; 2018
Table 16 China Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration higher band: 2014; 2018
Table 17 China Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast - 2014; 2018
Table 18 China Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast 2014; 2018
Table 19 China Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile market 2013 - 2014, 2018
Table 20 Georgia Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 21 Georgia Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 22 Georgia Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 23 Hong Kong Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band 2014; 2018
Table 24 Hong Kong Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band 2014; 2018
Table 25 Hong Kong Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: - 2014; 2018
Table 26 Hong Kong Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: - 2014; 2018
Table 27 Hong Kong Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast 2014; 2018
Table 28 Hong Kong Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast 2014; 2018
Table 29 India Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 30 India Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 31 India Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 32 Indonesia Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 33 Indonesia Forecast of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 34 Indonesia Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 35 Japan Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration 2014; 2018
Table 36 Japan Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration 2014; 2018
Table 37 Japan Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2017; 2020
Table 38 Japan Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2017; 2020
Table 39 Japan Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration 2014; 2018
Table 40 Kazakhstan Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 41 Kazakhstan Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 42 Kazakhstan Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 43 Kyrgyzstan Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 44 Kyrgyzstan Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 45 Kyrgyzstan Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 46 Laos Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 47 Laos Forecast internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 48 Laos Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 49 Macau Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band: - 2014; 2018
Table 50 Macau Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band: - 2014; 2018
Table 51 Malaysia Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 52 Malaysia Forecast broadband internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 53 Malaysia Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 54 Nepal Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 55 Nepal Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 56 Nepal Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 57 Pakistan Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 58 Pakistan Forecast internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 59 Pakistan Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 60 Philippines Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 61 Philippines Forecast Internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 62 Philippines Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 63 South Korea Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 64 South Korea Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 65 South Korea Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 66 South Korea Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 67 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 68 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 69 Sri Lanka Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 70 Sri Lanka Forecast fixed internet subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 71 Sri Lanka Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 72 Taiwan Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2014; 2018
Table 73 Taiwan Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2014; 2018
Table 74 Taiwan Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 (actual), 2014; 2018
Table 75 Taiwan Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 (actual); 2014; 2018
Table 76 Taiwan Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band: 2014; 2018
Table 77 Taiwan Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band: 2014; 2018
Table 78 Taiwan Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration higher band: 2014; 2018
Table 79 Taiwan Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2014; 2018
Table 80 Thailand Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 81 Thailand Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration 2015; 2020
Table 82 Thailand Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 83 Uzbekistan Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 84 Uzbekistan Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 85 Uzbekistan Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 86 Vietnam Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 87 Vietnam Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 88 Vietnam Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020


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