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BMI maintains a cautious outlook on Chile's freight transport sector. We continue to expect that 2013 willsee a shift in the Chilean economy, and we forecast real GDP growth to fall from 5.6% in 2012 to just 4.3%this year and average 4.2% from 2014-2017, below consensus estimates. This slowdown in growth isattributable to decelerating economic activity in China, which over the next several years will result inweakening real demand for Chilean copper exports and reduced investment into the country's mining sector,which have the effect of depressing road, rail and maritime dry bulk freight volumes.Much of Chile's pre-crisis economic boom was due to its ability to take full advantage of a highlyfavourable external environment. While world trade flows and copper prices have picked up dramaticallysince their lows in 2009, we forecast that commodity prices, specifically copper, will fall from recent highsover the medium-to-long term. Lower copper prices will place renewed importance on shifting away fromexport- and investment-led growth to a more diversified economic growth trajectory, one that is morereliant on private consumption. If private consumption takes an increased share of Chile's economy, we maysee increased growth in air freight, as well as in maritime container volumes, as both freight modes are usedto carry consumer goods. Rail freight, however, will be hit hard by a move away from mining.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Freight Transport 9Political 10Economic 12Business Environment 13Industry Forecast 14Air 14Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017 16Rail 16Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017 18Road Freight 18Maritime 18Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017 20Trade 21Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017 21Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 21Table: Chile's Main Import Partners (US$mn) 22 Table: Chile's Main Export Partners (US$mn) 23 Market Overview 24Industry Trends And Developments 27Industry Trends And Devlopments 27Rail 27Air 27Maritime 28Company Profile 30Ferrocarril del Pacifico SA (FEPASA) 30Compañía Chilena de Navegación Interoceánica 33CSAV 36Political Outlook 42Domestic Politics 42Long-Term Political Outlook 46Table: Chile Political Overview 50Oil Price Outlook 51Global Oil Products Price Outlook 51Methodology 51Crude Price Forecasts 51Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 52Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected 52Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 53Weak Demand Persists 54Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 57Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 58Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand 61Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 64Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement 65Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 67Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight 67Macroeconomic Forecasts 70Economic Activity 70Table: Chile - Economic Activity 75Demographic Forecast 76Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 77Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 78Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 79Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 79Methodology 80Transport Industry 80Sources 81