Chile Freight Transport Report

 Published On: Sep, 2013 |    No of Pages: 81 |  Published By: BMI Freight Transport | Format: PDF
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BMI maintains a cautious outlook on Chile's freight transport sector. We continue to expect that 2013 will
see a shift in the Chilean economy, and we forecast real GDP growth to fall from 5.6% in 2012 to just 4.3%
this year and average 4.2% from 2014-2017, below consensus estimates. This slowdown in growth is
attributable to decelerating economic activity in China, which over the next several years will result in
weakening real demand for Chilean copper exports and reduced investment into the country's mining sector,
which have the effect of depressing road, rail and maritime dry bulk freight volumes.
Much of Chile's pre-crisis economic boom was due to its ability to take full advantage of a highly
favourable external environment. While world trade flows and copper prices have picked up dramatically
since their lows in 2009, we forecast that commodity prices, specifically copper, will fall from recent highs
over the medium-to-long term. Lower copper prices will place renewed importance on shifting away from
export- and investment-led growth to a more diversified economic growth trajectory, one that is more
reliant on private consumption. If private consumption takes an increased share of Chile's economy, we may
see increased growth in air freight, as well as in maritime container volumes, as both freight modes are used
to carry consumer goods. Rail freight, however, will be hit hard by a move away from mining.

Industry View 7
Freight Transport 9
Political 10
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Air 14
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017 16
Rail 16
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017 18
Road Freight 18
Maritime 18
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017 20
Trade 21
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017 21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 21
Table: Chile's Main Import Partners (US$mn) 22
Table: Chile's Main Export Partners (US$mn) 23
Market Overview 24
Industry Trends And Developments 27
Industry Trends And Devlopments 27
Rail 27
Air 27
Maritime 28
Company Profile 30
Ferrocarril del Pacifico SA (FEPASA) 30
Compañía Chilena de Navegación Interoceánica 33
Political Outlook 42
Domestic Politics 42
Long-Term Political Outlook 46
Table: Chile Political Overview 50
Oil Price Outlook 51
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 51
Methodology 51
Crude Price Forecasts 51
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 52
Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected 52
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 53
Weak Demand Persists 54
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 57
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 58
Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand 61
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 64
Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement 65
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 67
Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight 67
Macroeconomic Forecasts 70
Economic Activity 70
Table: Chile - Economic Activity 75
Demographic Forecast 76
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 77
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 78
Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 79
Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 79
Methodology 80
Transport Industry 80
Sources 81

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