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Industry ViewFollowing a year in which BMI believes saw the recovery resume, 2014 will signal further growth andsome of the freight modes return to their pre-downturn levels.Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 1.35% in 2014following an estimated growth of 0.3% in 2013.Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 2% in 2014. The sector didnot manage to defy the downturn losing more than 11% of freight volumes over 2009 and 2010 before astrong recovery begun in 2011.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Political 11Economic 12Business Environment 13Industry Forecast 14Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 14Table: Germany Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts 15Healthcare Market Forecast 16Table: Germany Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts 17Table: Germany Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts 17Table: Germany Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts 18Prescription Drug Market Forecast 19Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-10 (EURbn) 20Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-10 (Packages, ms) 20Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-10 (Average Price per Pack, EUR) 20Table: Germany Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 21Patented Drug Market Forecast 22Table: Germany Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 23Generic Drug Market Forecast 24Table: Germany Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 26OTC Medicine Market Forecast 27Table: Germany Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 28Pharmaceutical Trade 29Table: Germany Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn) 30Table: Germany Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (EURmn) 31Other Healthcare Data 32Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 32Macroeconomic Forecasts 34Economic Analysis 34Table: Germany - Economic Activity 39Industry Risk Reward Ratings 40Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 40Germany Risk/Reward Ratings 44Rewards 44Risks 45Market Overview 46Industry Trends And Developments 47Epidemiology 47Healthcare Sector 48Health Insurance 48Healthcare Sector Reforms 49Research & Development 51Biotechnology Sector 54Table: Biotechnology Sector, 2008-09 55Clinical Trials 57Regulatory Development 58Table: BfArM Drug Registration Activity, 2006-10 58Intellectual Property Regime 602010 Healthcare Reform 61Pricing Regime 62Table: Price Build-Up In The German Pharmaceutical Market 63Table: Selected AMNOG Drug Assessments 65Reimbursement Regime 68Table: Top 10 GKV Selling Drug Brands, 2009-2010 (EURmn) 69Parallel Imports 72Competitive Landscape 73Table: Pharmaceutical Production, 1990-10 73Table: Leading German Pharmaceutical Companies 75Wholesale Sector 76Table: Members of the Association of Pharmaceutical Wholesalers (PHAGRO), 2012 76Retail Sector 79Company Profile 85Bayer HealthCare 85Boehringer Ingelheim 90STADA Arzneimittel 96Grünenthal 101Merck KGaA 103GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 108Pfizer 111Sanofi 114Merck & Co 117Demographic Forecast 119Demographic Outlook 119Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 120Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 121Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 122Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 122Glossary 123Methodology 125Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 125Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 125Notes On Methodology 126Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 127Ratings Overview 128Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 128Indicator Weightings 129