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BMI View: 2016 will be a good year for Italy's freight sector as the upswing
in domestic consumption will stimulate road freight growth and as exports of
cars and pharmaceuticals will show more dynamism than observed in recent years,
which will feed through into growth of rail and air freight.
Over the medium term, we expect growth in Italy's freight sector to slow down
considerably as economic growth will be muted and exports will face strong
We have revised up (modestly) our forecasts for Italian real GDP growth in 2016
and 2017, to 1.2% and 1.0% respectively, from 1.1% and 0.9% as the recovery in
domestic consumption will be strong.
Over the medium term, however, we hold a bearish view with regards to the
Italian economy, as the moderate recovery in domestic consumption will be
insufficient to offset the weak performance of the external sector.
Over our forecast period (2017-2019), we expect the economy to grow on average
by relatively weak 0.8% measured in real terms.
BMI Industry View
Table: Trade Overview (Italy 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Italy 2013-2019)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Italy 2013-2020)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Italy 2013-2020)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Italy 2013-2020)
The Grimaldi Group
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Political Table
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Table: Real GDP Growth Forecasts
Table: Italy Private Consumption Forecasts
Table: Italy Public Consumption Forecasts
Table: Italy Fixed Investment Forecasts
Table: Italy Net Export Forecasts
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Italy 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Italy 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Italy 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Italy 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Italy 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology