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BMI View: The Japanese freight industry will once more be led by the rail
sector in terms of y-o-y tonnage growth, pencilled in to come in at 3.30% in
Behind this mode will be air and road with annual growth of 1.30% and 0.34%
Stymieing freight growth to some degree over the short term at least is the fact
that Japan's largest export market is the US, which recently overtook China and
receives 20% of total exports.
The weakening JPY/USD exchange rate will continue to undermine Japanese exports
in US dollar terms as any increase in shipment volumes fails to match up to the
depreciation in the currency.
Contrary to mainstream belief, the weakening of the yen is undermining the
Japanese economy, but its effects are being concealed by the windfall gains of
lower energy imports.
The weakening yen continues to undermine Japan's economy by reducing export
receipts in US dollar terms in spite of the rise in export volumes.
However, these negative effects are being concealed by the windfall gains of
lower energy imports, which look likely to remain in place over the medium term.
BMI Industry View
Table: Trade Overview (Japan 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Japan 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Sources
Table: Main Export Destinations
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Japan 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Japan 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Japan 2012-2019)
All Nippon Airways Cargo (ANA Cargo)
Japan Airlines Corporation Cargo (JAL Cargo)
Table: Japanese Prime Ministers Since 1990
Long Term Political Outlook
Table: Japan Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology