Kenya Freight Transport Report

 Published On: Jan, 2014 |    No of Pages: 93 |  Published By: BMI Freight Transport | Format: PDF
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An accelerating domestic economy and rising demand in key export markets will cause Kenya's current account deficit to gradually narrow over the coming years. We predict that the country's current account shortfall will shrink from the 8.3% of GDP in 2014 to 5.6% in 2018. The key driver of Kenya's current account shortfall is the country's gaping trade deficit, which is driven by high demand for oil, manufactured goods and consumer products. This will provide some comfort for the Kenyan freight industry.

This wide trade deficit is partially offset by surpluses in the service and transfer accounts. Kenya's service exports are among the largest in the region, and reflect the earnings of the country's large travel and tourism sector. Despite a series of set-backs in 2013 (including an airport fire and the September Westgate attack), BMI holds a positive long-term view of the industry, and believes that it will continue to bring in needed foreign exchange.

Industry View 7
Freight Transport 10
Political 12
Economic 14
Business Environment 15
Industry Forecast 17
Macroeconomic Outlook 17
Air Freight 17
Table: 1: Air Freight, 2011-2018 18
Maritime Freight 18
Table: 2: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018 18
Rail Freight 18
Table: 3: Rail Freight, 2011-2018 19
Trade 19
Table: 4: Trade Overview, 2011-2018 19
Table: 5: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 20
Table: 6: Top Import Destinations, US$mn, 2007-2012 20
Table: 7: Main Export Partners, 2007-2012 21
Market Overview 22
Industry Trends And Developments 31
Air Freight 31
Rail Freight 32
Road Freight 35
Maritime Freight 38
Company Profile 41
Kenya Airways Cargo (KQ Cargo) 41
Delmas 45
Political Outlook 48
Domestic Politics 48
Long-Term Political Outlook 50
Table: Kenya Political Overview 53
Oil Price Outlook 55
Global Oil Product Price Outlook 55
Methodology 55
Crude Price Forecasts 55
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 56
Variance Across Product Markets 56
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 59
Weak Demand Persists 60
Risks To Outlook 61
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 61
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 62
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 66
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 68
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 70
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 72
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 72
Macroeconomic Forecasts 76
Economic Outlook 76
Table: Kenya - GDP By Expenditure 83
Demographic Forecast 86
Kenya Demographic Outlook 86
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 87
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 89
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 90
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 90
Methodology 91
Industry Forecast Methodology 91
Sector-Specific Methodology 92
Sources 93

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