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An accelerating domestic economy and rising demand in key export markets will cause Kenya's current account deficit to gradually narrow over the coming years. We predict that the country's current account shortfall will shrink from the 8.3% of GDP in 2014 to 5.6% in 2018. The key driver of Kenya's current account shortfall is the country's gaping trade deficit, which is driven by high demand for oil, manufactured goods and consumer products. This will provide some comfort for the Kenyan freight industry.This wide trade deficit is partially offset by surpluses in the service and transfer accounts. Kenya's service exports are among the largest in the region, and reflect the earnings of the country's large travel and tourism sector. Despite a series of set-backs in 2013 (including an airport fire and the September Westgate attack), BMI holds a positive long-term view of the industry, and believes that it will continue to bring in needed foreign exchange.
Industry View 7SWOT 10Freight Transport 10Political 12Economic 14Business Environment 15Industry Forecast 17Macroeconomic Outlook 17Air Freight 17Table: 1: Air Freight, 2011-2018 18Maritime Freight 18Table: 2: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018 18Rail Freight 18Table: 3: Rail Freight, 2011-2018 19Trade 19Table: 4: Trade Overview, 2011-2018 19Table: 5: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 20Table: 6: Top Import Destinations, US$mn, 2007-2012 20Table: 7: Main Export Partners, 2007-2012 21Market Overview 22Industry Trends And Developments 31Air Freight 31Rail Freight 32Road Freight 35Maritime Freight 38Company Profile 41Kenya Airways Cargo (KQ Cargo) 41Delmas 45Political Outlook 48Domestic Politics 48Long-Term Political Outlook 50Table: Kenya Political Overview 53Oil Price Outlook 55Global Oil Product Price Outlook 55Methodology 55Crude Price Forecasts 55Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 56Variance Across Product Markets 56Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 59Weak Demand Persists 60Risks To Outlook 61Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 61Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 62Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 66Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 68Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 70Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 72Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 72Macroeconomic Forecasts 76Economic Outlook 76Table: Kenya - GDP By Expenditure 83Demographic Forecast 86Kenya Demographic Outlook 86Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 87Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 89Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 90Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 90Methodology 91Industry Forecast Methodology 91Sector-Specific Methodology 92Sources 93