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"BMI View: We expect healthy growth across the freight modes in Malaysia in
2016, with rail freight pencilled in to register the strongest y-o-y gains. As a
regional transhipment hub, Malaysia's freight modes benefit from strong trade
links with its neighbours and this will only be strengthened over the medium to
long term with the relatively advantageous agreement obtained by the country in
the Trans Pacific Partnership. These gains will be largely derived from
increases in allocative efficiencies, productivity gains, and the fall in
investment barriers due to the gradual removal of tariff and non-tariff
Key Updates and Forecasts
■ Malaysia's 2015 real GDP growth came in at 5.0%, slightly above our forecast
of 4.7%. Ongoing weakness in the Chinese economy coupled with continued
headwinds in the domestic economy will continue to weigh on Malaysia's economic
growth, however, which will temper our freight forecasts somewhat as a result.
As such, we maintain our 2016 real GDP forecast at 4.5%.
■ Total trade (real terms) in Malaysia is set to increase by a healthy 4.05%
y-o-y in 2016, up fairly significantly from 1.05% in 2015. The country's
improving economic outlook, coupled with a strengthening in regional demand, is
driving up trade, although headwinds do persist in the form of slowing demand
from key trade partner China (which has led to a sharp fall in export demand)
and lower oil prices, while a weakening currency that has exacerbated by the
recent yuan devaluation, broad-based US dollar strength, and ongoing political
■ The highest rate of annual growth across Malaysia's freight mix is set to be
rail at 9.6% in 2016, with the slowest y-o-y growth forecast to come in air
freight at 1.1%
BMI Industry View ....... 5Table: Trade Overview (Malaysia 2013-2020) . . . . 5SWOT .... 6Industry Forecast 8Trade Forecast .. 8Table: Trade Overview (Malaysia 2013-2020) . . . 13Table: Key Trade Indicators (Malaysia 2013-2020) . . . 13Table: Top Import Sources 14Table: Top Export Destinations 15Road Freight Forecast ...... 16Table: Road Freight (Malaysia 2013-2020) 18Rail Freight Forecast ....... 20Table: Rail Freight (Malaysia 2013-2020) . 23Air Freight Forecast 25Table: Air Freight (Malaysia 2013-2020) . . 28Shipping Forecast .... 30Ocean Shipping ..... 30Table: Major Ports Data (Malaysia 2013-2020) . 33Table: Top Import Sources, 2007-2014 . . . . . 34Table: Top Export Destinations, 2007-2014 35Market Overview ....... 36Company Profile 39MASkargo ...... 39Demographic Forecast ..... 42Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malaysia 1990-2025) . . . . 43Table: Key Population Ratios (Malaysia 1990-2025) . . 43Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Malaysia 1990-2025) . . . 44Table: Population By Age Group (Malaysia 1990-2025) . . . . 44Table: Population By Age Group % (Malaysia 1990-2025) . 45Methodology ...... 47Industry Forecast Methodology 47Sector-Specific Methodology .... 48Sources 50