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BMI View: We expect continued growth for the Dutch freight industry in 2016
and over the medium term.
Private consumption will be a key for economic growth amidst falling gas
exports, supporting importgrowth and thereby having a positive impact on all
freight modes in the country. Rail freight will continueto have the strongest
growth over the medium term, also increasing its market share as the sector
willbenefit from the investments into European transport infrastructure and the
removal of the sugar quota in2017. Both road and rail will benefit from growing
domestic consumption, economic growth in main tradepartner Germany and strong
fuel demand across Europe.
Although real GDP slowed markedly in Q215 - to 1.6% y-o-y, down from 2.5% in
Q115 - we still maintainthat the Dutch consumer story remains robust. Private
consumption expanded by a robust 1.7% y-o-y inQ215, broadly on a par with the
1.8% y-o-y growth in Q115, and the accompanying ramp-up in importgrowth in Q215
reduced the headline growth figure. Private consumption will remain a key
contributor togrowth in the coming quarters, as households benefit from low
inflation, rising house prices and atightening labour market. As a result, real
GDP growth should accelerate in H215, prompting us to reviseslightly upwards our
forecast to to 1.9% in 2016 (up from 1.8%).
BMI Industry View
Table: Trade Overview (Netherlands 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Netherlands 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Netherlands 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Netherlands 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Netherlands 2012-2019)
Air France-KLM Cargo
DB Schenker Rail Netherlands
Table: Political Overview Table
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Table: Economic Activity (Netherlands 2010-2019)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Netherlands 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Netherlands 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Netherlands 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Netherlands 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Netherlands 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology