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Maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. While we expect real GDP growth to level off at around 5.0% during our forecast period, below its recent trend, significant mineral wealth, attractive investment opportunities at the sector level, and a growing consumer story underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America in the coming yearsFurther upside comes from the recently announced plan to heavily invest in Peru's transport network, which BMI believes will help boost the country's freight transport volumes, through providing easier routes to market. However, we caution that perhaps the plan is overly ambitious, and might not quite hit the desired target by the scheduled date. According to Peru's transport and communications minister, Carlos Paredes Rodrígues, USD22bn is set to be invested in the Latin American country's transport and communications sectors by 2016.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Freight Transport 9Political 10Economic 11Business Environment 12Industry Forecast 13Road 14Air 15Table: Air Freight (Peru 2011-2018) 17Rail 17Table: Rail Freight (Peru 2011-2018) 19Maritime 19Table: Maritime Freight (Peru 2011-2018) 20Trade 21Table: Trade Overview (Peru 2011-2018) 21Table: Key Trade Indicators (Peru 2011-2018) 21Table: Top Import Partners, USD22Table: Top Export Partners, USD 23Market Overview 24Industry Trends And Developments 26Company Profile 29Ferrocarril Central Andino 29Political Outlook 31Domestic Politics 31Table: Recent Cabinet Changes 31Long-Term Political Outlook 33Table: Table: Political Overview38Oil Price Outlook 40Jet Fuel 40Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl 40Better Outlook Tames Price Fall 40Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth42Risks To Outlook 45Diesel 46Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 46New York's One-Off Heat Up 46NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected 49Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward 53Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks 55Risks To Outlook 59Bunker Fuel 60Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 60The Storm Clears For Shipping 61(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices 63Long-Term Threats Linger 64Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder 66Risks To Outlook 67Macroeconomic Forecasts 68Table: Peru - Economic Activity 72Demographic Forecast 73Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 74Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 75Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 76Table: Peru's Rural/Urban Population, 1990-2020 76Methodology 77Industry Forecast Methodology 77Sector-Specific Methodology 78Sources 79