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While the Philippines will continue to run a trade deficit, sustained robust growth in services exports will allow the country to generate a current account surplus with this growth providing a spur for the country's freight industry. We forecast the country's current account surplus to rise to 3.8% of GDP in 2015 from an estimated 3.7% in 2014.Although the Philippines freight industry will face headwinds from continued weakness in the Japanese economy (a key trade partner), we nevertheless expect the country's current account position to remain strong in 2015, on the back of a continued surplus in the services category as well as sustained robust growth in overseas workers' remittances. A strong current account position will therefore help to sustain the ongoing improvement in the Philippines' external accounts, which will greatly reduce systemic risk faced by the country.
Industry View 7SWOT 10Freight Transport 10Political 12Economic 13Operational Risk 14Industry Forecast 16Cargo 16Table: Cargo (Philippines 2012-2019) 18Air Freight 18Table: Air Freight (Philippines 2012-2019) 19Maritime Freight 19Table: Maritime Freight (Philippines 2012-2019) 20Road & Rail Freight 20Trade 21Table: Trade Overview (Philippines 2012-2019) 21Table: Key Trade Indicators (Philippines 2012-2019) 22Table: Top Import Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn) 23Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn) 24Market Overview 25Company Profile 32International Container Terminal Services, Inc (ICTSI) 32Political Outlook 37Foreign Policy 37Political Outlook 40Table: Philippines Political Overview 44Oil Price Outlook 45Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts 45Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) 45Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) 46Macroeconomic Forecasts 48Economic Analysis 48Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2010-2019) 51Demographic Forecast 52Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025) 53Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025) 53Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025) 54Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025) 54Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025) 55Methodology 57Industry Forecast Methodology 57Sector-Specific Methodology 58Sources 59