Thailand Freight Transport Report

 Published On: Jul, 2015 |    No of Pages: 54 |  Published By: BMI Freight Transport | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We expect a mixed growth picture across Thailand's freight transport sector in 2015. While challenges from the volatile political situation - following the establishment of a military government in May 2014 - persist, the government has introduced a range of measures which should help boost the economy and reassure investors. However, a shaky outlook for domestic consumer demand will weigh on the road haulage and air freight sectors. We expect rail freight, which is less exposed to the consumer, to be the outperforming freight mode, thanks to a bumper rice harvest and ongoing investment into its development and cross-border connectivity.

The outlook for Thailand's trade is fairly lacklustre in 2015. In real terms we forecast that growth will be positive, albeit very slow at just 0.1%. This is due to a projected 0.3% real contraction in imports, which our forecast of 0.5% real growth in exports will not be sufficient to offset to any great degree. The poor outlook for imports is based in large part on ongoing weakness in consumer demand, which we do not expect to improve in the near term thanks to ongoing worries over political risk and household debt levels. Household debt as a share of annualised GDP continues to rise, with the latest data showing that the debt metric was at an elevated 86.1% in Q314.

BMI Industry View7
Freight Transport9
Operational Risk13
Industry Forecast16
Rail Freight17
Table: Rail Freight (Thailand 2012-2019)19
Road Freight20
Table: Road Freight (Thailand 2012-2019)21
Air Freight21
Table: Air Freight (Thailand 2012-2019)23
Inland Waterways Freight23
Table: Inland Waterway Freight (Thailand 2012-2019)23
Maritime Freight23
Table: Maritime Freight (Thailand 2012-2019)25
Table: Trade Overview (Thailand 2012-2019)26
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Thailand 2012-2019)26
Table: Top Import Sources, 2006-2013, USDmn28
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013, USDmn29
Market Overview30
Company Profile34
Thai Cargo34
Political Outlook37
Domestic Politics37
Table: Thailand Political Overview40
Long-Term Political Outlook40
Oil Price Outlook45
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts45
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)45
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)46
Macroeconomic Forecasts48
Economic Activity48
Table: Economic Activity (Thailand 2009-2018)52
Demographic Forecast53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Thailand 1990-2025)54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Thailand 1990-2025)54
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Thailand 1990-2025)55
Table: Population By Age Group (Thailand 1990-2025)55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Thailand 1990-2025)56
Industry Forecast Methodology58
Sector-Specific Methodology59

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