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BMI View: We expect 2016 to see uneven growth across Vietnam's different
Whereas on the back of improved domestic consumption and good trade dynamics
road freight will grow by a strong 8.1% and air freight will also see a good
year, rail freight will show a weak performance as domestic crude oil production
will embark on a downward trend.
Over the medium term we expect these trends to continue.
We expect Vietnam to post strong economic growth of 6.6% in 2016, coming in on
the back of strong FDI inflows, a pick-up in domestic credit growth and
relatively low inflation of 2.1%.
Trade will grow strongly with exports and imports rising by 6.2% and 7.3% y-o-y
respectively in real terms.
Despite the challenging regional environment, exports will post strong growth as
the economic recovery in the USA, Vietnam's main trading partner, will make up
for the weak demand from China and Japan.
Imports will benefit from the improved domestic environment, in particular the
lower inflation rate, which is forecast to generally follow a more stable path
over the coming years.
BMI Industry View
Table: Trade Overview (Vietnam 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Vietnam 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019)
Vietnam Airlines Cargo
Short-Term Political Outlook
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Vietnam Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Table: Economic Activity (Vietnam 2010-2019)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology