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This econometric study covers the outlook for railroads in Africa. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries in Africa). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for railroads in Africa. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the national markets of Africa. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
Table Of Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 71.1 Overview 71.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 71.3 The Methodology 81.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 101.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 111.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 111.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 121.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 131.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 131.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 132 AFRICA 152.1 Executive Summary 152.2 Algeria 162.3 Angola 172.4 Benin 182.5 Botswana 182.6 Burkina Faso 192.7 Burundi 202.8 Cameroon 202.9 Cape Verde 212.10 Central African Republic 222.11 Chad 222.12 Comoros 232.13 Congo (formerly Zaire) 242.14 Cote d'Ivoire 252.15 Djibouti 252.16 Egypt 262.17 Equatorial Guinea 272.18 Ethiopia 272.19 Gabon 282.20 Ghana 292.21 Guinea 302.22 Guinea-Bissau 302.23 Kenya 312.24 Lesotho 322.25 Liberia 322.26 Libya 332.27 Madagascar 342.28 Malawi 342.29 Mali 352.30 Mauritania 362.31 Mauritius 362.32 Morocco 372.33 Mozambique 382.34 Namibia 382.35 Niger 392.36 Nigeria 402.37 Republic of Congo 412.38 Rwanda 412.39 Sao Tome E Principe 422.40 Senegal 432.41 Sierra Leone 432.42 Somalia 442.43 South Africa 452.44 Swaziland 462.45 Tanzania 462.46 The Gambia 472.47 Togo 482.48 Tunisia 492.49 Uganda 502.50 Western Sahara 502.51 Zambia 512.52 Zimbabwe 522.53 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 522.53.1 Category Definition 522.53.2 Units 532.53.3 Methodology 543 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 563.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 563.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 57