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This econometric study covers the outlook for railroads in Asia & Oceana. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries in Asia & Oceana). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for railroads in Asia & Oceana. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the national markets of Asia & Oceana. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
Table Of Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 71.1 Overview 71.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 71.3 The Methodology 81.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 101.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 111.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 111.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 121.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 131.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 131.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 132 ASIA & OCEANA 152.1 Executive Summary 152.2 American Samoa 162.3 Australia 172.4 Bangladesh 172.5 Bhutan 192.6 Brunei 192.7 Burma 202.8 Cambodia 212.9 China 212.10 Christmas Island 222.11 Cook Islands 232.12 Fiji 232.13 French Polynesia 242.14 Guam 252.15 Hong Kong 252.16 India 262.17 Indonesia 272.18 Japan 282.19 Kiribati 292.20 Laos 292.21 Macau 302.22 Malaysia 312.23 Maldives 322.24 Marshall Islands 322.25 Micronesia Federation 332.26 Mongolia 332.27 Nauru 342.28 Nepal 352.29 New Caledonia 352.30 New Zealand 362.31 Niue 372.32 Norfolk Island 382.33 North Korea 382.34 Palau 392.35 Papua New Guinea 402.36 Philippines 402.37 Seychelles 412.38 Singapore 422.39 Solomon Islands 422.40 South Korea 432.41 Sri Lanka 442.42 Taiwan 442.43 Thailand 452.44 The Northern Mariana Island 462.45 Tokelau 472.46 Tonga 472.47 Tuvalu 482.48 Vanuatu 482.49 Vietnam 492.50 Wallis and Futuna 492.51 Western Samoa 502.52 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 502.52.1 Category Definition 502.52.2 Units 512.52.3 Methodology 523 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 543.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 543.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 55