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This econometric study covers the outlook for railroads in Europe. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries in Europe). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for railroads in Europe. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the national markets of Europe. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
Table Of Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 71.1 Overview 71.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 71.3 The Methodology 81.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 101.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 111.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 111.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 121.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 131.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 131.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 132 EUROPE 152.1 Executive Summary 152.2 Albania 162.3 Andorra 172.4 Austria 172.5 Belarus 172.6 Belgium 182.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 192.8 Bulgaria 202.9 Croatia 212.10 Cyprus 212.11 Czech Republic 222.12 Denmark 232.13 Estonia 242.14 Finland 242.15 France 252.16 Georgia 262.17 Germany 272.18 Greece 282.19 Hungary 292.20 Iceland 302.21 Ireland 312.22 Italy 312.23 Kazakhstan 322.24 Latvia 332.25 Liechtenstein 342.26 Lithuania 352.27 Luxembourg 352.28 Malta 362.29 Moldova 372.30 Monaco 372.31 Norway 382.32 Poland 392.33 Portugal 402.34 Romania 412.35 Russia 422.36 San Marino 432.37 Slovakia 432.38 Slovenia 442.39 Spain 452.40 Sweden 462.41 Switzerland 472.42 The Netherlands 482.43 The United Kingdom 492.44 Ukraine 502.45 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 502.45.1 Category Definition 502.45.2 Units 512.45.3 Methodology 523 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 543.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 543.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 55