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This econometric study covers the outlook for railroads in North America & the Caribbean. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries in North America & the Caribbean). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for railroads in North America & the Caribbean. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the national markets of North America & the Caribbean. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
Table Of Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 71.1 Overview 71.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 71.3 The Methodology 81.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 101.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 111.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 121.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 121.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 131.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 131.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 132 NORTH AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN 152.1 Executive Summary 152.2 Antigua and Barbuda 162.3 Aruba 172.4 Barbados 182.5 Bermuda 182.6 Canada 192.7 Cuba 202.8 Dominica 212.9 Dominican Republic 212.10 Greenland 222.11 Grenada 232.12 Guadeloupe 242.13 Haiti 252.14 Jamaica 252.15 Martinique 262.16 Puerto Rico 272.17 St. Kitts and Nevis 282.18 St. Lucia 282.19 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 292.20 The Bahamas 302.21 The British Virgin Islands 302.22 The Cayman Islands 312.23 The U.S. Virgin Islands 322.24 The United States 322.25 Trinidad and Tobago 332.26 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 342.26.1 Category Definition 342.26.2 Units 342.26.3 Methodology 353 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 373.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 373.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 38