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This econometric study covers the outlook for aircraft products and services in the Middle East. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries in the Middle East). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for aircraft products and services in the Middle East. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the national markets of the Middle East. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
Table Of Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 61.1 Overview 61.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 61.3 The Methodology 71.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 91.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 101.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 111.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 111.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 121.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 121.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 122 THE MIDDLE EAST 142.1 Executive Summary 142.2 Afghanistan 152.3 Armenia 162.4 Azerbaijan 172.5 Bahrain 172.6 Iran 182.7 Iraq 192.8 Israel 202.9 Jordan 202.10 Kuwait 212.11 Kyrgyzstan 222.12 Lebanon 222.13 Oman 232.14 Pakistan 242.15 Palestine 252.16 Qatar 252.17 Saudi Arabia 262.18 Syrian Arab Republic 272.19 Tajikistan 282.20 The United Arab Emirates 282.21 Turkey 292.22 Turkmenistan 302.23 Uzbekistan 302.24 Yemen 312.25 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 322.25.1 Category Definition 322.25.2 Units 322.25.3 Methodology 333 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 353.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 353.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 36