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BMI View: Latvia's freight industry will grow at a moderate pace over 2016,
prompted by stable economic growth and an uptick in household consumption.
However, it is poised to feel the negative effects of the deterioration in trade
relations between the EU and the Russian Federation.
While on aggregate sanctions put in place by the West have not significantly
affected the EU's growth outlook, they have hit Latvia hard.
Russia is one of Latvia's largest trading partners, accounting for 10% of total
exports, and the country also acts as a conduit for trade between the EU and
The economic outlook for Latvia remains stable over the short term, although
weaker demand from Russia is dragging on the industrial sector.
We forecast real GDP growth will increase to 3.0% in 2016 from 2.8% in 2015.
Household confidence has continued to improve, and will likely keep rising over
the coming quarters, mirroring positive developments in the labour market and
steadily growing wages.
Registered cars also continued to rise, tallying with steady retail sales
Taken together, the outlook for households remains one of gradual but robust
improvement as the sector draws to the end of its deleveraging cycle and
disposable incomes rise.
Low inflation (headline CPI contracted by 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September
2015) is also helping to bolster household purchasing power, although consumer
price growth will begin to pick up at the start of 2016 as base effects from low
BMI Industry View
Table: Trade Overview (Latvia 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Latvia 2013-2019)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Latvia 2013-2020)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Latvia 2013-2020)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Latvia 2013-2020)
Latvian Shipping Company
Table: Latvia - Political Overview Table
Long-Term Political Outlook
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Latvia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology