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BMI View: The freight industry in Pakistan is forecast to grow moderately
over the medium term as trade growth is increasing and investment is being put
into freight infrastructure.
Weaker demand for commodities and lower oil prices have impacted the economy in
Pakistan over the last year and also subdued freight transport growth.
Nevertheless, reform programmes enhancing growth in private consumption are
improving GDP growth, and thus also benefiting road and air freight.
The country's efforts to diversify trade away from its current core trade
partners could also enhance the rail and road freight sectors over the medium
Pakistan's manufacturing growth momentum has picked up in recent months despite
the ongoing contraction in exports.
The Index of Large-Scale Manufacturers posted a growth rate of 5.6% y-o-y in
June 2015 on a three-month moving average basis, marking a strong pick-up
towards the end of fiscal year 2014/15 (July-June), supporting our view for a
slight acceleration in growth in 2016 to 4.3%.
While manufacturing represents just 14.0% of GDP according to the GDP by output
statistics, this figure understates the importance of the sector owing to the
fact that GDP includes several service sector components that leverage from the
As such, a healthy manufacturing sector is crucial to the overall state of the
economy and its freight volumes.
BMI Industry View
Table: Trade Overview (Pakistan 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Pakistan 2013-2019)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Pakistan 2013-2020)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Pakistan 2013-2020)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Pakistan 2013-2020)
Pakistan Railways (PR)
Mercury Logistics Pakistan (MLP)
Pakistan International Airlines Cargo (PIA Cargo)
Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC)
Long Term Political Outlook
Table: Scenario Matrix: Evolution of State
Table: Scenario Matrix: Centrifugal Versus Centripetal Forces
Table: Pakistan Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Pakistan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Pakistan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Pakistan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Pakistan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Pakistan 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology