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Australia's current account picture is gradually improving despite deteriorating terms of trade, the result of higher export volumes and lower income outflows, the former providing welcome news for the Australia freight industry. Going forward we maintain that a current account surplus is likely as the Australian dollar depreciates, but this will increasingly be driven by lower imports, to the detriment of the domestic economy.Australia's current account position continues to gradually improve, and we maintain our view that a current account surplus within the next few years (we are forecasting a broad balance by 2017). There have been two dynamics in play that have been contributing to the improvement in Australia's current account deficit over recent years. Firstly, the trade balance has gradually improved as commodity shipments have surged in volume terms, while import growth has been subdued owing to the weaker Australian dollar and slower investment growth. We expect these trends to continue to lead to an improvement in the trade account, even as export values struggle with the impact of lower iron ore and coal prices.
Industry View 7SWOT 10Freight Transport 10Political 12Economic 13Industry Forecast 14Road Freight 17Table: Road Freight (Australia 2012-2019) 18Rail Freight 18Table: Rail Freight (Australia 2012-2019) 19Air Freight 20Table: Air Freight (Australia 2012-2019) 20Maritime Freight 20Table: Maritime Freight (Australia 2012-2019) 21Trade 21Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2012-2019) 21Table: Key Trade Indicators (Australia 2012-2019) 22Table: Top Import Destinations, 2006-2013 23Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013 24Market Overview 25Company Profile 35Toll Group 35Pacific National 39Aurizon (formerly QR National) 43Qantas Freight 48Political Outlook 53Domestic Politics 53Long-Term Political Outlook 55Table: Table: Political Overview 60Oil Price Outlook 61Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts 61Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) 61Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) 62Macroeconomic Forecasts 64Economic Analysis 64Table: Macroeconomic Forecasts (Australia 2010-2016) 66Demographic Forecast 68Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025) 69Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025) 69Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025) 70Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025) 70Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025) 71Methodology 73Industry Forecast Methodology 73Sector-Specific Methodology 74Sources 75