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We forecast that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outpace the Latin American giant's realGDP growth in 2014 and over our medium-term forecast period (2014-2018), across all modes. Continuedgrowth in the BRIC nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road, rail and ports sectorswill continue to experience healthy expansion, while air freight will benefit from the growing demands ofthe country's expanding middle class. Further, the sector will benefit from Brazil's role as a major exporterof a host of commodities.Nevertheless there remain serious challenges to growth, and hence risks to our outlook. These stem fromboth the physical side - whether infrastructure development in the country will be sufficient to support ourprojected growth rates - and the human - the ports sector is already undergoing a wave of industrial unrestas workers contest the government's proposed ports privatisation moves.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Freight Transport 9Political 11Economic 12Business Environment 13Industry Forecast 14Rail 15Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018 16Road 16Air 17Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018 18Maritime 18Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018 20Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018 20Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) 21Table: Brazil's Main Import Partners, 2005-2011 (US$mn) 21Table: Brazil's Main Export Partners, 2005-2011 (US$mn) 22Market Overview 23Industry Trends And Developments 28Maritime 28Road 31Rail 32Company Profile 33LATAM Cargo 33EcoRodovias 37Santos Brasil Participações 40Vale (Logistics) 44Aliança Navegação e Logística 53Political Outlook 56Political Risk Analysis 56Economy To Dominate Policymaking 60Table: Political Overview 65Oil Price Outlook 67Global Oil Products Price Outlook 67Methodology 67Crude Price Forecasts 67Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 68Variance Across Product Markets 69Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 71Weak Demand Persists 73Risks To Outlook 74Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 74Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 75Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 79Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 81Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 83Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 85Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 85Macroeconomic Forecasts 89Economic Analysis 89Table: BRAZIL - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 95Demographic Forecast 96Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 97Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 98Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 99Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 99Methodology 100Industry Forecast Methodology 100Sector-Specific Methodology 101Sources 102