Business Monitor International's Agribusiness service also provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context, such as the background macroeconomic outlook and the downstream supply chain.

Key Benefits

• Use BMI's independent 5-Year industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

• Apply BMI's medium term commodity price forecasts to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks

• Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors and peers in Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa through our company rankings and analysis.

Executive Summary

As 2009 progresses, there is little to suggest an uptick in global economic health. Turkey is expected to experience a full and deep recession, weighed down by a sizeable current account deficit, while its highly productive agricultural sector is foreseen to stumble through the year, to the detriment of the one-third of the population employed in rural husbandry. BMI 's latest Turkey Agribusiness Report looks at how, with EU accession looming, the Turkish government seeks to incorporate higher levels of productive efficiency, through private investment and bilateral development partnerships.

The prospect of joining the EU has forced the state to look at ways in which it can increase productivity in domestic farming without aggravating a precarious macroeconomic position. Subsequently, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been targeted as being able to help consolidate the productive capacity of Turkish agriculture, which at present is largely fragmented and family-run. In addition to improving the local supply outlook, stimulating household demand is a pertinent aim to helping the economy restrengthen. Since late 2008, some success has been achieved on the FDI front. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has agreed to provide finance to the tune of US$193mn for agribusiness and small business development. The figure is reported to rise to US$300mn in 2010 and could be used to marked effect in developing infrastructure. More recently, a group consisting of various Arab investment houses signalled its intention to facilitate substantial capital flows into Turkey; a development which the government has used as a PR tool to highlight investor optimism in local farming.

A range of agricultural sub-sectors are still supported through government subsidies, which must surely weigh heavily on an already tight fiscal burden; this dynamic must surely be eradicated if real efficiency gains are ever to be realised. This will most likely mean that a number of small-scale producers may struggle to stay afloat, thus the face of Turkish farming is set to change irrevocably, with a smaller number of producers becoming increasingly influential.

The potential for social unrest and economic instability associated with the disappearance of small owned family enterprises, is notable. While productivity may improve, unemployment and unrest could provide a more pertinent threat in future. However, with supply and demand fundamentals expected to perform well through to 2013, despite a rocky 2009, BMI believes that a more economically-minded approach will translate into a brighter outlook for both aggregate production and consumption, boosting the entire domestic outlook, while the value added sub-sectors stand to gain considerably.

Chapter - Executive Summary

Chapter - SWOT Analysis

Turkey Agricultural SWOT

Chapter - Industry Business Environment Overview

Market Overview

Chapter - Supply Demand Analysis

Turkey Grains Outlook

Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption

Table: Turkey Corn Production & Consumption

Table: Turkey Barley Production & Consumption

Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption

Table: Turkey Corn Production & Consumption

Table: Turkey Barley Production & Consumption

Industry Forecast - Turkey Livestock Outlook

Table: Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption

Table: Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption

Table: Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption

Table: Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption

Industry Forecast - Turkey Rice Outlook

Table: Turkey Rice Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Turkey Rice Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast - Turkey Sugar Outlook

Table: Turkey Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Turkey Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders

Table: Agribusiness Suppliers

Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers

Chapter - Market Strategy - Grains Update

Corn

Table: Corn

Soybean

Table: Soybean

Rice

Table: Rice

Wheat

Table: Wheat

Chapter - Market Strategy Softs Update

Cocoa

Table: Cocoa

Coffee

Table Coffee

Milk

Table: Milk

Sugar

Table: Sugar

Industry Forecast Scenario - Food

Food Consumption

Table: Turkey Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Canned Food

Table: Turkey Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Confectionery

Table: Turkey Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Trade

Table: Turkey Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail

Table: Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Economic Activity

Table: Turkey - Economic Activity

Chapter - Special Feature ''“ Global Tobacco Outlook

Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts