Business Monitor International's Agribusiness service also provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context, such as the background macroeconomic outlook and the downstream supply chain.

Key Benefits

• Use BMI's independent 5-Year industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

• Apply BMI's medium term commodity price forecasts to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks

• Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors and peers in Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa through our company rankings and analysis.

Executive Summary

Agriculture in the Ukraine, once the bread basket of Europe, has fallen on sorry times since the collapse of the Soviet Union and independence in 1991. Now, however, it looks like a recovery may be under way. In BMI's new Ukraine Agribusiness Report for Q109, we examine how agriculture in Ukraine can retrieve its former status.

After government subsidies and guaranteed markets fell along with the Soviet Union, Ukraine's agriculture went into a long decline through the 1990s. By the end of the decade, production volumes had collapsed, agricultural GDP fallen by half and more than 2mn jobs had been lost in rural areas.

Since 2000, however, the sector's prospects have improved and a nascent recovery has begun. This has been driven by the development of a small number of larger, profitable operators, though production in most sectors is still dominated by inefficient, loss-making farms.

The emergence of a new class of efficient farms can most clearly be seen in the poultry sector, which we forecast to grow by 63.3% to 2012. There, two large, profitable firms account for more than 70% of production.

We also expect grain production to retake lost ground over the medium term, and, by the end of our forecast period in 2012, we expect Ukraine to be firmly established among the world's top wheat exporters. With yields far below the potential of Ukraine's fertile soil and much arable land lying fallow, there is plenty of room for production growth.

There are, however, a number of challenges that must be met if this recovery is to continue. Recent government interference in the form of export quotas on grain have starved the industry of much-needed funds for investment. A ban on the sale of agricultural land has hampered the expansion of profitable farms, forcing them to lease land instead of owning it outright. This has served to discourage investment in land improvement. A drain of workers from rural areas into the cities also threatens to derail the recovery of the agricultural sector.

Ukraine's former agricultural success may also come back to haunt it if measures to preserve the environment are not taken. The intensive agriculture introduced to Ukraine when it was part of the Soviet Union and the rapid expansion of area under agricultural harvest have put pressure on natural resources.

This has led to falls in the fertility of the soil and declines in water retention. As agriculture in the Ukraine redevelops, more attention will have to be paid to the environment if the recovery is to be sustainable.

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Ukraine Agricultural SWOT

Sub-sector Supply & Demand Analysis

Ukraine Grain Outlook

Table: Ukraine Barley Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Corn Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Barley Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Table: Ukraine Corn Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Table: Ukraine Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Risks To Outlook

Ukraine Livestock Outlook

Table: Ukraine Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Pork Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Table: Ukraine Pork Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Table: Ukraine Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Risks To Outlook

Ukraine Dairy Outlook

Table: Ukraine Milk Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Butter Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade Forecast Data

Table: Ukraine Milk Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Table: Ukraine Butter Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Table: Ukraine Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Table: Ukraine Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade Historical Data

Risks to Outlook

Commodity Price Forecasts

Rice

Wheat

Corn

Sugar

Milk

Competitive Landscape

Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders

Table: Agribusiness Suppliers

Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers

Downstream Supply Chain Context

Food

Industry Forecast Scenario

Trade

Table: Ukraine Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data And Forecasts

Table: Sectoral Trade Indicators -- Export, Import And Balance Value (US$mn)

Confectionery

Table: Value/Volume Sales Of Confectionery -- Historical Data And Forecasts

Mass Grocery Retail

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Ukraine Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format -- Historical Data And Forecasts

Macroeconomic Context

Table: Ukraine - Economic Activity

BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts