Business Monitor International's Agribusiness service also provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context, such as the background macroeconomic outlook and the downstream supply chain.

Key Benefits

• Use BMI's independent 5-Year industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

• Apply BMI's medium term commodity price forecasts to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks

• Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors and peers in Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa through our company rankings and analysis.

Executive Summary

In BMI's China Agribusiness Report for Q3 2009 we introduce the new Soybean Outlook. In it we discuss how China's rapidly developing soybean sector has been coping with the turbulence in the world market for the commodity over the past year.

The growth in China's soybean consumption over the past year has been meteoric. In the decade up to 2008, consumption more than tripled and China moved from being pretty much self-sufficient to being the world's biggest importer by far. This has been driven by the development of the country's livestock sector. With meat consumption expected to grow strongly beyond the current economic problems, demand for soybean will climb ever higher.

As for many other commodities, 2008 was a roller-coaster year for soybean prices. The rapid rise in prices starting in late 2007 and continuing until mid-2008 caused the government to worry about the impact on the domestic livestock sector and cut import duty by two percentage points to 1%. China's soybean farmers meanwhile expanded the area planted in the hope of reaping the benefits of the high prices. By the time harvesting season came around, however, prices had plummeted. Government intervention with a programme to purchase 5mn tonnes of soybean at around 15% above the market price pleased nobody. Farmers griped about difficulties accessing the scheme, while processors complained that the higher prices were impacting their competitiveness.

The rapid rise in demand has led to some major changes in China's soybean sector. Crushing plants have sprung up around port cities to meet incoming shipments. Foreign involvement in the sector is also high.

The combination of rapidly rising imports and high foreign ownership in the soybean processing sector has unsurprisingly sparked concerns about the impact on food security. However, with China's everwealthier consumers hungering for more meat, it seems there is little the government can do to stem the flow without seriously damaging the country's livestock sector. We therefore see continued strong growth in soybean consumption throughout our forecast period to 2013.

Away from soybean, the expected slowdown in Chinese economic growth - BMI is now forecasting growth in 2009 of 5.6% year-on-year, down from 9.0% in 2008 and 12.0% in 2007 - will see some changes in demand patterns for agricultural goods. We expect demand for the staple rice to pick up as consumers cut down on more expensive foods.

Chapter - Executive Summary

Chapter - SWOT Analysis

China Agricultural SWOT

Chapter - Industry Business Environment Overview

Market Overview

Chapter - Supply Demand Analysis

Industry Forecast - China Livestock Outlook

Table: China Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Pork Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Pork Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast - China Dairy Outlook

Table: China Milk Production & Consumption

Table: China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Milk Production & Consumption

Table: China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast - China Rice Outlook

Table: China Rice Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Rice Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast ''“ China Grains Outlook

Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Corn Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Barley Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Corn Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Barley Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast ''“ China Sugar Outlook

Table: China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast - China Soybean Outlook

Table: China Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: China Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders

Table: Agribusiness Suppliers

Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers

Chapter - Market Strategy - Grains Update

Corn

Table: Corn

Soybean

Table: Soybean

Rice

Table: Rice

Wheat

Table: Wheat

Chapter - Market Strategy - Softs Update

Cocoa

Table: Cocoa

Coffee

Table: Coffee

Milk

Table: Milk

Sugar

Table: Sugar

Chapter - Downstream Supply Chain Analysis

Industry Forecast Scenario - Food

Food Consumption

Table: China Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Instant Noodles

Confectionery

Table: China Confectionery Volume/Value Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Trade

Table: China Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail

Table: China Mass Grocery Retail Sales (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Economic Activity

China - Economic Activity

Chapter - Special Feature ''“ Global Tobacco Outlook

Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts