Business Monitor International's Agribusiness service also provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context, such as the background macroeconomic outlook and the downstream supply chain.

Key Benefits

• Use BMI's independent 5-Year industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

• Apply BMI's medium term commodity price forecasts to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks

• Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors and peers in Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa through our company rankings and analysis.

Executive Summary

The year just past will be remembered as a proud year for Indonesian agriculture. In 2008, the country achieved self-sufficiency in the production of rice and corn. These were long-held goals for Indonesia's leaders and were given extra significance by the turbulence in the world markets for agricultural products over 2008.

Becoming a net exporter of rice, the staple food, is a particularly significant accomplishment that has been achieved only once before in the country's recent history. The heady forecasts of up to 2mn tonnes of rice exports in 2009 have now come down to a more realistic 100,000 tonnes, but another large harvest this year could see that figure increase in 2010.

While the government was glad to crow about the achievement, especially so close to an election, many small farmers found 2008 to be a less happy year. Rice production in Indonesia is still dominated by small-scale farms on tiny plots of land. More than half of Indonesia's farmers own less than 0.5 hectares (ha) of land. Much of the extra revenue from high prices and large crops was eaten up by increased input costs leaving farmers little better off. Farmers are supposed to have access to subsidised fertiliser from the government. However, the task of getting the reduced-price product to its intended recipient across the vast Indonesian archipelago is often too much. Indonesia's slow-moving and oft corrupt bureaucracy means that some of the fertiliser is never sent out and some disappears along the way. In 2009, things look to be little improved as by the beginning of March only just over half of Indonesia's rice-growing districts had submitted their requests for subsidised fertiliser according to reports in the local press.

The requests were supposed to have been submitted by December. The problem of land fragmentation, poor bureaucracy and infrastructure will continue to dog Indonesia's agricultural sector. Past governments have tried to solve the cramped conditions on the main islands by moving people onto outer islands, but the projects were fraught with problems and have been abandoned.

Agriculture still employs 40% of Indonesia's labour force, and until the economy grows fast enough to draw more people from the fields there is little chance for the development of modern, efficient agriculture on the country's densely populated main island of Java.

One avenue of growth for the sector currently being explored is for large-scale investments on the outer islands. Poor infrastructure has traditionally hampered the exploitation of land outside the main areas of Java, Sumatra and to a lesser extent Sulawesi. However, if large enough projects could be established, this problem could be overcome.

The government is currently touting a 585,000ha area of land in Merauke, West Papua province, for investment. There has been interest from Middle Eastern investors keen to boost food security in the wake of the rapid food price rises of 2008. While the financial crisis has dampened interest for the moment, in the years to come investors are likely to come back. This could see the development of large-scale modern farms aimed at the export market.

While developments such as this could see production rise, we warn that investing in the outer islands will come with its fair share of risk. Apart from the infrastructure problems, Papua has a deep-rooted separatist movement and large investments perceived to be for the benefit of outsiders in Java could well rile the local population. Other islands likely to be considered for large investments, such as Borneo, could also prove hostile to large developments.

Chapter - Executive Summary

Chapter - SWOT Analysis

Indonesia Agricultural SWOT

Chapter - Industry Business Environment Overview

Market Overview

Chapter - Supply Demand Analysis

Indonesia Sugar Outlook

Table: Indonesia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast ''“ Indonesia Cocoa Outlook

Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast ''“ Indonesia Dairy Outlook

Table: Indonesia: Milk Production & Consumption

Table: Indonesia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Milk Production & Consumption

Table: Indonesia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast ''“ Indonesia Grains Outlook

Industry Forecast ''“ Indonesia Grains Outlook

Table: Indonesia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade

Industry Forecast ''“ Indonesia Livestock Outlook

Table: Indonesia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade

Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders

Table: Agribusiness Suppliers

Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers

Chapter - Market Strategy - Grains Update

Corn

Table: Corn

Soybean

Table: Soybean

Rice

Table: Rice

Wheat

Table: Wheat

Chapter - Market Strategy Softs Update

Cocoa

Table: Cocoa

Coffee

Table Coffee

Milk

Table: Milk

Sugar

Table: Sugar

Chapter - Downstream Supply Chain Analysis

Industry Forecast Scenario - Food

Food Consumption

Table: Indonesia Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Canned Food

Confectionery

Table: Indonesia Selected Food Subsectors Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Trade

Table: Indonesia Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Forecast Scenario ''“ Retail

Table: Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Indonesia Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts

Economic Activity

Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity

Chapter - Special Feature ''“ Global Tobacco Outlook

Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts