New Zealand Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 49 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand throughout the medium-tolong term. This will be supportive for the dairy and livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity. However, the dairy sector will suffer over the short term due to low prices on the international market, as well as herd rebuilding. We believe prices will pick up again
later in 2017.

Key Forecasts

-Milk production growth to 2019/20: 4.6% to 22.9mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.
-Milk powder production growth to 2018/19: 15.4% to 1.6mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.
-2016 real GDP growth: 2.3%, down from 3.0% in 2015. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2016 and 2020.
BMI Industry View ............... 5
SWOT .... 7
Industry Forecast 9
Dairy Outlook ........... 9
Latest Updates ......... 9
Table: New Zealand - Liquid Milk Production & Consumption Outlook.........9
Structural Trends ..... 9
Table: Milk Products Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2012-2020)......... 11
Commodities Price Analysis ............. 13
Global - Global Commodities Strategy ......... 13
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts........... 13
Upstream Analysis ............ 15
Americas GM Outlook .............. 15
Americas Machinery Outlook ..... 22
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)........ . . . 25
Americas Fertiliser Outlook ....... 29
Regional Overview ............ 37
Demographic Forecast ..... 43
Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025).......... . . . . 44
Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025)........... . . . . . . 44
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025)........45
Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025)........... . . 45
Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025)..........46
Methodology ...... 48
Industry Forecast Methodology 48
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 49
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