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BMI View: Kenya will continue to underperform its regional peers with regard
to the development of its agricultural sector. Despite COMESA granting another
extension to the sugar import safeguard, which will provide a short-term boost,
we expect the country's sugar sector to remain regionally inefficient and to
post very limited growth over the coming years. However, we continue to forecast
steady coffee production growth due to improvements in husbandry techniques.
Kenya will largely avoid the El Niņo-related droughts that affected grain
production in southern Africa, but the country will face more expensive corn
imports due to higher regional prices.
-Corn production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 16.5% to 3.1mn tonnes. Corn
production growth will be fairly limited, as subdued prices relative to previous
years will limit plantings, while yield growth will be poor. Most of the gains
will be due to base effects.
-Wheat consumption growth 2015 to 2020: 15.5% to 2.1mn tonnes. Kenyans already
have a high rate of wheat consumption by regional standards. Improvements in
availability and growth in population and incomes will drive consumption.
-Coffee production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 3.7% to 809,000 60kg bags. Growth
will be driven by increased financial support from the government in the form of
funds and debt relief. In addition, new coffee varieties are likely to help
boost yields. Our lower 2020 figure is due to low base effects stemming from a
poor 2015/16 crop related to El Niņo.
-2016 real GDP growth: 6.5% (up from 5.6% in 2015). Forecast to average 6.3%
between 2016 and 2020.
-2016 consumer price inflation average: 7.2%, up from 6.6% in 2015.