Kenya Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Aug, 2016 |    No of Pages: 58 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Kenya will continue to underperform its regional peers with regard to the development of its agricultural sector. Despite COMESA granting another extension to the sugar import safeguard, which will provide a short-term boost, we expect the country's sugar sector to remain regionally inefficient and to post very limited growth over the coming years. However, we continue to forecast steady coffee production growth due to improvements in husbandry techniques. Kenya will largely avoid the El Niņo-related droughts that affected grain production in southern Africa, but the country will face more expensive corn imports due to higher regional prices.

Key Forecasts
-Corn production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 16.5% to 3.1mn tonnes. Corn production growth will be fairly limited, as subdued prices relative to previous years will limit plantings, while yield growth will be poor. Most of the gains will be due to base effects.
-Wheat consumption growth 2015 to 2020: 15.5% to 2.1mn tonnes. Kenyans already have a high rate of wheat consumption by regional standards. Improvements in availability and growth in population and incomes will drive consumption.
-Coffee production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 3.7% to 809,000 60kg bags. Growth will be driven by increased financial support from the government in the form of funds and debt relief. In addition, new coffee varieties are likely to help boost yields. Our lower 2020 figure is due to low base effects stemming from a poor 2015/16 crop related to El Niņo.
-2016 real GDP growth: 6.5% (up from 5.6% in 2015). Forecast to average 6.3% between 2016 and 2020.
-2016 consumer price inflation average: 7.2%, up from 6.6% in 2015.

BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT .... 10
Agribusiness ...... 10
Industry Forecast ..... 12
Coffee Outlook ... 12
Latest Updates .. 12
Table: Kenya - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook . . . . 12
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 13
Structural Trends ..... 13
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Kenya 2012-2020) . . . 14
Grains Outlook .. 14
Latest Updates .. 14
Table: Kenya - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook . . . 14
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 15
Structural Trends ..... 15
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Kenya, 2012-2020) . . 17
Sugar Outlook .... 17
Latest Updates .. 17
Table: Kenya - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 18
Structural Trends ..... 18
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Kenya 2012-2020) . . . . 19
Commodities Price Analysis .. 20
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 20
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . . . 20
Upstream Analysis ... 22
Africa GM Outlook .... 22
Africa Machinery Outlook .. 29
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions . 29
Africa Fertiliser Outlook .... 34
Downstream Analysis ..... 41
Food .. 41
Latest Updates .. 41
Structural Trends ..... 42
Table: Food Sales (Kenya 2013-2020) . . . 43
Regional Overview ... 45
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview ... 45
Competitive Landscape .. 51
Table: Kenya - Competitive Landscape . . . 51
Demographic Forecast ... 52
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025) . 53
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025) . 53
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025) . . . 54
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025) . . 54
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025) 55
Methodology ...... 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 58
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