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BMI View: Rising incomes and populations will see South West Africa enjoy
long-term growth in corn production. While there will be significant bumps along
the way, with the 2015/16 forecast especially poor for Botswana and Namibia, the
region will see output growth outpace consumption growth through to the end of
our forecast period in 2019/20. Meanwhile, in the sugar sector we see production
in the key market of Angola beginning to slow over the forecast period as cheap
imports from Brazil and China compete with local production.
Key BMI Forecasts
-Angolan corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 5.1% to 1.97mn tonnes. After a
bumper crop in 2015/16, we expected production levels to slow through the
duration of our forecast period.
-Botswana corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 350.0% to 18,000 tonnes.
Insufficient rains during the cropping season caused widespread crop failure and
caused a large-scale slump in output in 2015/16. We are forecasting production
to jump in 2016/17 with an increase in the crop coming from a low base, and we
expect this positive sentiment to continue through to the end of our forecast
-Angola sugar production growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 170.4% to 135,200
tonnes. Over the long term, we believe Angolan sugar output has strong potential
following years of flat production growth through to 2015/16. The increased
presence of the private sector has improved production methods and encouraged
the use of fertilisers.