South West Africa Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Jul, 2016 |    No of Pages: 72 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Rising incomes and populations will see South West Africa enjoy long-term growth in corn production. While there will be significant bumps along the way, with the 2015/16 forecast especially poor for Botswana and Namibia, the region will see output growth outpace consumption growth through to the end of our forecast period in 2019/20. Meanwhile, in the sugar sector we see production in the key market of Angola beginning to slow over the forecast period as cheap imports from Brazil and China compete with local production.

Key BMI Forecasts
-Angolan corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 5.1% to 1.97mn tonnes. After a bumper crop in 2015/16, we expected production levels to slow through the duration of our forecast period.
-Botswana corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 350.0% to 18,000 tonnes. Insufficient rains during the cropping season caused widespread crop failure and caused a large-scale slump in output in 2015/16. We are forecasting production to jump in 2016/17 with an increase in the crop coming from a low base, and we expect this positive sentiment to continue through to the end of our forecast period.
-Angola sugar production growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 170.4% to 135,200 tonnes. Over the long term, we believe Angolan sugar output has strong potential following years of flat production growth through to 2015/16. The increased presence of the private sector has improved production methods and encouraged the use of fertilisers.

BMI Industry View ....... 7
SWOT .... 9
Agribusiness ..... 9
Industry Forecast ...... 11
Grains Outlook ....... 11
Latest Updates ....... 11
Table: Angola, Botswana And Namibia - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risk To Outlook . . . . 12
Structural Trends ... 13
Table: Angola, Botswana And Namibia Corn Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes) . 14
Sugar Outlook . 15
Latest Updates ....... 15
Table: Angola - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook . 15
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 15
Structural Trends ... 16
Table: Angola Sugar Production & Consumption, 2014-2020 . . . . 17
Commodity Price Analysis 18
Global - Global Commodities Strategy . 18
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts . . . 18
Upstream Analysis .... 20
Africa GM Outlook .. 20
Africa Machinery Outlook . 27
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions . 27
Africa Fertiliser Outlook ... 33
Downstream Analysis ....... 40
Food ..... 40
Latest Updates ....... 40
Structural Trends ... 41
Table: Food Sales (Botswana 2013-2020) 41
Food ..... 43
Latest Updates ....... 43
Structural Trends ... 44
Table: Food Sales (Namibia 2013-2020) . 44
Food ..... 46
Latest Updates ....... 46
Structural Trends ... 47
Table: Food Sales (Angola 2013-2020) . . 48
Regional Overview .... 50
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview ..... 50
Demographic Forecast ..... 56
Demographic Outlook ...... 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Angola 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Angola 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Angola 1990-2025) . . . 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Angola 1990-2025) . . 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Angola 1990-2025) . . . . 59
Demographic Outlook ...... 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Botswana 1990-2025) . . . 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Botswana 1990-2025) . . 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Botswana 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (Botswana 1990-2025) . . . . 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Botswana 1990-2025) . 64
Demographic Outlook ...... 66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Namibia 1990-2025) . . . . 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Namibia 1990-2025) . . . . 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Namibia 1990-2025) . 68
Table: Population By Age Group (Namibia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Namibia 1990-2025) . . 69
Methodology ...... 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 72
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