Russia Agribusiness Report

 Published On: May, 2016 |    No of Pages: 63 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Russia's poultry and pork sectors will perform strongly as consumer demand is growing and domestic production is looking to bridge the gap left by EU imports, which will not resume until H216. Wheat will outperform the grains complex out to 2020 due to elevated farmgate prices in rouble terms and strong opportunities on the domestic and export markets, which will maintain production incentives. The Russian dairy sector will benefit from growth momentum until 2017 due to the EU embargo. In particular, cheese production will see solid gains in a bid to gain market share. Afterwards, dairy producers will face lower subsidies and lower prices, which will lay the foundations for consolidation in the industry.

Key Forecasts
■ Wheat production growth in 2016/17: 1.6% y-o-y to 62.0mn tonnes. We maintain our 2016/17 wheat production forecast at 62.0mn tonnes. Higher winter wheat acreage and warm weather over Q415-Q116 underpin our bullish view on the 2016/17 harvest.

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT ...... 9
Agribusiness ...... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Rice Outlook .... 11
Table: Russia - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook . 11
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 11
Structural Trends ..... 12
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Russia 2012-2020) 13
Dairy Outlook .. 13
Latest Updates  13
Table: Russia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook . . . . . 14
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 14
Structural Trends ..... 15
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption . . 17
Livestock Outlook ...... 18
Latest Updates  18
Table: Russia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook . . 19
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 20
Structural Trends ..... 20
Table: Russia Livestock Production & Consumption . . . 22
Grains Outlook  22
Latest Updates  22
Table: Russia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook . . . . 23
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 23
Structural Trends ..... 24
Table: Russia Grains Production & Consumption . . . . . 25
Commodities Forecast .. 26
Global Commodities Strategy  26
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . . . . 26
Upstream Analysis  28
Europe GM Outlook ... 28
Europe Machinery Outlook ... 34
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) . 38
Europe Fertiliser Outlook .... 40
Downstream Analysis .... 47
Food ..... 47
Latest Updates  47
Structural Trends ..... 48
Table: Food Sales (Russia 2013-2020) . . . . . 48
Regional Overview  51
Europe Regional Overview ... 51
Competitive Landscape . 56
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 56
Demographic Forecast .. 57
Demographic Outlook  57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) . 58
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) . . . . . 58
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 59
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) . 59
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) . . . . 60
Methodology . 62
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 62
Sector-Specific Methodology ........ 63 
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