Hungary Power Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 55 |  Published By: BMI Power | Format: PDF
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BMI View: The outlook for Hungary's power sector is mixed. On the one hand the government is keen to improve energy security and is investing in the expansion of both cross-border connections and domestic capacity. On the other hand very slow consumption growth combined with artificially lowered electricity prices and a lack of investment incentives means the market remains unattractive to developers, particularly in the underdeveloped renewable energy sector. At present we are maintaining our forecasts for limited growth in generation and capacity through to 2025, with the Paks power plant expansion expected to come online beyond the end of our current forecast period.

Latest Updates and Structural Trends
-Hungary will reportedly be required to fulfil two conditions to get the European Commission's (EC) approval for the project: the first condition states all issues associated with the supervision of the power plant should be 'clearly separated' from existing policymaking and the second is that the power produced should be sold at a power exchange in line with market principles and not directly to the Hungarian national grid.
-Investment is ongoing to modernise and upgrade electricity infrastructure in Hungary. EON confirmed a number of projects in the last few months, including the HUF600mn project to replace power lines and gas pipelines in the Kaposvár region and HUF1.5bn in similar upgrade works in the Győr region.
-Following a fall in electricity generation in 2015, we forecast a slight return to growth in 2016 with generation expected to increase by 0.62% to reach 29.31TWh - leaving Hungary reliant upon electricity imports.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Hungary 2015-2021) 7
SWOT ...... 8
Industry Forecast .. 10
Hungary Snapshot ..... 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . . 10
Hungary Power Forecast Scenario . 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast ...... 11
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast ...... 13
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast . 14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity ........ 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) . 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) . 18
Electricity Consumption ..... 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) . . . 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) . . . 19
Transmission & Distribution ........ 20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) 21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) . . . . 21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) . . . . 21
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 22
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index ...... 22
Hungary Power Risk/Reward Index . 29
Rewards ........ 29
Risks .... 29
Market Overview ... 31
Key Policies And Market Structure .. 31
Regulation And Competition 31
Pricing . 32
Table: Half-yearly electricity and gas prices, second half of year, 2012-14 (EUR per kWh) . . . 32
Hungary Power Projects Database . 33
Competitive Landscape . 35
MAVIR . 35
MOL .... 35
EdF ..... 35
E.ON ... 36
RWE .... 36
Electrabel ...... 37
Company Profile .... 38
MVM ..... 38
Regional Overview 41
CEE Power Regional Overview ...... 41
Glossary ........ 49
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 49
Methodology . 50
Methodology And Sources .... 50
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 50
Sources 53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 53
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators . . 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 55
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