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BMI View: The easing of sanctions, which began in earnest in Q116, is
beginning to result in investment in Iran, including in the power sector, and we
expect such gains to continue as firms seek to exploit the opportunities created
by fresh access to a very large, and long-neglected, market. However, the
overall outlook is for moderate, rather than strong, growth due to a poor
outlook for government spending and the partial nature of the sanctions removal.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
-Iran's Energy Minister Hamid Chitchian flagged the possibility of linking
Iran's power grid to counterparts in the EU (June 2016).
-Turkey's Unit International announced it will invest USD4.2bn in seven gas
fired plants in Iran, adding 6,020MW to the national grid (June 2016).
-South Korea's Hyundai Engineering announced it is close to sealing a deal with
Iran to construct a 500MW power plant 25km off Zanjan, together with a gas
injection station and high voltage power transmission lines (April 2016).
-China's Shanxi Energy met with Iran's Renewable Energy Organization to discuss
a potential 600MW photovoltaic plant (April 2016).
-UK company Cyan secured a USD14mn contract to provide smart electricity meters
to Iran; 360,000 units will be provided to major industrial users, which account
for 25% of Iran's power consumption (April 2016).
-Germany's Siemens announced in March 2016 that it had signed a deal with Iran's
Mapna Group, with the latter acquiring technology to manufacture over 20 gas
turbines. The two firms also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for
further work in Iran's power sector.
-Iran's Atomic Energy Organization announced in March 2016 that it was seeking
to cooperate with Japan in building several small nuclear plants, according to
the Tehran Times.
BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Iran 2015-2021) 7
SWOT .. 9
Industry Forecast 11
Iran Snapshot ....... 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Iran 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Iran 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . . 11
Iran Power Forecast Scenario ...... 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity ......... 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Iran 2014-2019) 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Iran 2020-2025) 13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Iran 2014-2019) . 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Iran 2020-2025) . 14
Electricity Consumption .. 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Iran 2014-2019) . . .
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Iran 2020-2025) . . .
Transmission And Distribution Imports And Exports .... 20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Iran 2014-2019) 20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Iran 2020-2025) 20
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Iran 2014-2019) . . . . 20
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Iran 2020-2025) . . . . 20
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 23
MENA Power Risk/Reward Index . 23
Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Index . 29
Iran Power Risk/Reward Index ..... 30
Rewards ... 30
Risks ........ 31
Market Overview . 32
Key Policies And Market Structure 32
Regulation And Competition ....... 32
Pricing ..... 33
Iran Power Projects Database ..... 33
Table: Iran - Key Power Projects Database . . . 33
Competitive Landscape 35
Regional Overview ........ 37
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview ...... 37
Glossary ..... 45
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 45
Methodology ........ 46
Methodology And Sources . 46
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 46
Sources .... 49
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 49
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators . . 50
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 51