World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019

 Published On: Sep, 2015 |  Published By: DWL
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Between 2015 and 2019, global downstream asset maintenance spend is expected to total $322 billion (bn), an increase of 12% when compared to the previous five-year period. In 2014, expenditure totalled $63bn for the world’s global downstream asset population of approximately 13,000 facilities, DW expect this to increase to $71bn by 2019. Despite a minor drop in 2015, resulting from industry-wide price deflation of equipment and services and budget tightening, an ageing existing asset population as well as a number of new installations drive the overall growth.

By sector, Asset Services accounts for the majority of expenditure, 72%, with Asset Integrity accounting for the remaining 28%. North America and Asia dominate global expenditure, accounting for 35% and 28% of spend over the forecast period respectively. US downstream facilities are also expected to see a revival as a result of the recent shale boom.

The World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 analyses the demand for maintenance in two key equipment and service lines: downstream asset services and downstream asset integrity services, and across four facility types: refineries, petrochemical plants, gas processing and LNG. The report includes:

-Drivers & indicators – in depth discussion of the factors encouraging asset maintenance expenditure including: E&P trends, oil & gas prices, analysis of the recent oil price downturn), downstream facility population, asset lifecycle, policies & regulation and trends and drivers detailed by refinery, petrochemical, gas processing and LNG.
-Service line analysis – for downstream asset services and asset integrity services split out by service line, asset type and region with competitive landscape and detailed supply chain analysis.
-Regional analysis – expenditure by service line 2010-2019 with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.

Why purchase the Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast

Douglas-Westwood’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

An essential report – for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, oil & gas companies and government agencies & departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

-Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
-Detailed methodology – the report uses research from our own in-house downstream databases for refineries, petrochemicals, gas processing and LNG, an information system exclusive to DW, to form the basis of the models. Assumptions used to generate market demand are the result of our primary and secondary research. Demand-side analysis by service line provides a metric on which to establish future opportunities and provide a context for market share assessment.
-Comprehensive market forecasts – examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of expenditure.
-Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.
1 Summary and Conclusions 7
Summary ... 8
Conclusions .... 9
2 Drivers and Indicators..... 10
Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand . 11
Changing Energy Mix  12
Natural Gas  13
LNG ... 14
Oil – Supply & Demand . 15
Oil Price Volatility ..... 16
Refining Margins .. 17
Downstream Facility Population .. 18
Refinery Yeild and Petrochemical Output .. 19
Refining Trends & Drivers ... 20
Petrochemical Trends & Drivers .. 21
Gas Processing Trends & Drivers  22
LNG Trends & Drivers... 23
Politics and Regulation ... 24
3 Market Structure and Methodology .. 25
Asset Lifecycle ..... 26
Asset Services – Definitions ..... 27
Asset Integrity – Definitions ..... 28
Supply Chain – Continental Europe .. 29
Supply Chain – North America  30
Supply Chain – Middle East . 31
4 Asset Services ... 32
Methodology: Overview  33
Barriers & Limitations .... 34
Market Forecast: By Service Line  35
Market Forecast: By Asset Type .. 36
Market Forecast: By Region  37
5 Asset Integrity ... 38
Market Forecast: By Service Line  39
Market Forecast: By Asset Type .. 40
Market Forecast: By Region  41
6 Regional Summary .. 42
Regional Summary..... 43
Africa . 45
Asia .... 46
Australasia .... 47
Eastern Europe & FSU 48
Latin America...49
Middle East ... 50
North America  51
Western Europe .... 52
7 Appendix .. 53
Top 20 Countries ... 54
Data and Text Conventions 55

Figures
Figure 1: Global Maintenance Expenditure by Region 2010-2019..8
Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035 ... 11
Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region, 1965-2013 ... 11
Figure 4: The Changing Energy Mix 1980-2013..... 12
Figure 5: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/mwh) .... 13
Figure 6: Natural Gas Prices ($/mbtu) .. 13
Figure 7: LNG Supply by Region (excludes FLNG) ... 14
Figure 8: FLNG Capex ..... 14
Figure 9: Oil Price & Demand ... 15
Figure 10: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014... 15
Figure 11: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2007 – February 2015... 16
Figure 12: Oil Price to Balance Budgets with Brent at $59 (20 February 2015) . 16
Figure 13: Historic Brent cracking margins relative to Brent oil price (Jan 08 – Feb 15) . 17
Figure 14: Global Downstream Population 2009-2018 ..... 18
Figure 15: US Refinery Yield 2014 .... 19
Figure 16: Petrochemical Feedstocks and Outputs .. 19
Figure 17: Global Oil Refinery Utilisation .. 20
Figure 18: Global Refining Capacity in 2014 and 2019..... 20
Figure 19: Global Petrochemical Price Index 2009-2015 .. 21
Figure 20: Global Petrochemical Capacity in 2014 and 2019 . 21
Figure 21: Global Gas Processing Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ..... 22
Figure 22: LNG Demand Outlook 2005-2030. 23
Figure 23: Global LNG Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ..... 23
Figure 24: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019 ..... 35
Figure 25: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019... 35
Figure 26: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 . 36
Figure 27: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 ..... 36
Figure 28: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2019  37
Figure 29: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019.. 37
Figure 30: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019 ... 39
Figure 31: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019. 39
Figure 32: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 ..... 40
Figure 33: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 ... 40
Figure 34: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2019 .. 41
Figure 35: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 41
Figure 36: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2010-2019... 44
Figure 37: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa 2010-2019 ..... 45
Figure 38: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia 2010-2019... 46
Figure 39: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia 2010-2019..... 47
Figure 40: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU 2010-2019 . 48
Figure 41: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America 2010-2019 .... 49
Figure 42: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East 2010-2019 ... 50
Figure 43: Maintenance Expenditure in North America 2010-2019 . 51
Figure 44: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe 2010-2019 .. 52

Tables
Table 1: Primary Energy Demand Growth by Region ...11
Table 2: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019.... 35
Table 3: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019  36
Table 4: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2014-2019..... 37
Table 5: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019.. 39
Table 6: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019 .... 40
Table 7: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2014-2019... 41
Table 8: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2014-2019 .44
Table 9: Global Forecast Maintenance Expenditure by Asset Type & Service Line 2015-19 44
Table 10: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Service Line 2014-2019 ..... 45
Table 11: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Asset Type 2014-2019 . 45
Table 12: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Service Line 2014-2019... 46
Table 13: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Asset Type 2014-2019 ..... 46
Table 14: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Service Line 2014-2019..... 47
Table 15: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Asset Type 2014-2019 . 47
Table 16: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Service Line 2014-2019 . 48
Table 17: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Asset Type 2014-2019 ... 48
Table 18: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Service Line 2014-2019.... 49
Table 19: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Asset Type 2014-2019  49
Table 20: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Service Line 2014-2019 ... 50
Table 21: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Asset Type 2014-2019 ..... 50
Table 22: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Service Line 2014-2019. 51
Table 23: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Asset Type 2014-2019 ... 51
Table 24: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Service Line 2014-2019 .. 52
Table 25: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Asset Type 2014-2019  52
Table 26: Top 20 Countries – Refining Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019.. 54
Table 27: Top 20 Countries – Petrochemical Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019 .... 54
Table 28: Top 20 Countries – Gas Processing Expenditure 2015 & 2019 ..... 54
Table 29: Top 20 Countries – LNG Expenditure 2015 & 2019..... 54
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