Uzbekistan Power Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 62 |  Published By: BMI Power | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Gas-fired power will remain the dominant source of power in Uzbekistan over our 10-year forecast period through to 2025, as robust gas production and limited gas export opportunities weaken the government resolve to diversify the Uzbek power mix. The aim to privatise certain power assets to raise cash and spur investment, amid the country's economic malaise, will register limited success due to structural challenges muting investor interest for such assets.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

-Uzbekistan is currently attempting to undertake a privatisation of its power sector - whereby 10 construction firms operating under the umbrella of Uzbekenergo are to sell off 15% or more of their shares to foreign investors. We do not investor interest to be robust for power sector assets, as a result of a challenging operating environment, the cyclical nature of the privatisation push and the backdrop of a series of false privatisation starts.

-The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in Central Asia, as Uzbekistan strongly opposes developments due to worries that the downstream of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative consequences. Uzbekistan has repeatedly urged its neighbours to focus on developing small-scale projects run by the river hydropower facilities as an alternative.

-Uzbekistan's main commodity exports gas, gold, cotton and copper have seen a sizeable plunge in prices throughout 2015, albeit the drop has not been as pronounced as oil. Together these commodities account for nearly two-thirds of Uzbekistan export basket. We expect commodity prices to remain subdued in and remain significantly below the levels seen in previous years, despite a rebound in prices over the next few years. This will weigh power sector investment, due to the big footprint of the state.
BMI Industry View ............... 7
SWOT .... 8
Industry Forecast 9
Uzbekistan Snapshot .. 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uzbekistan 2015-2019)........ 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)........ 9
Uzbekistan Industry Forecast ..... 10
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast ...... 15
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast .... 21
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast .......... 22
Non-Hydropower Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast ... 24
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)........ . . . . 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)........ . . . . 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)........ 28
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)........ 28
Electricity Consumption .......... 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)........ . . 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)........ . . 30
Transmission & Distribution .... 30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)........ . . . . 31
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)........ . . . . 31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .......... 32
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index .. 32
Industry Risk/Reward Index ....... 39
Rewards ............... 39
Risks .... 40
Market Overview ............... 41
Regulation And Competition ..... 41
Pricing . 43
Uzbekistan Projects Database .... 44
Competitive Landscape .... 46
Uzbekenergo ......... 46
Mitsubishi Hitachi Power System (MHPS) .. 47
Hyundai Engineering & Construction ........ 47
Regional Overview ............ 48
CEE Power Regional Overview .. 48
Glossary ............. 56
Table: Glossary Of Terms............... . . . . . . 56
Methodology ...... 57
Methodology And Sources ......... 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sources 60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ............... 60
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators............. . . . 61
Table: Weighting Of Indicators............... . 62
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