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BMIís commercial banking forecast series covers 62 countries accounting for
80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMIís independent
assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2017 for the commercial banking sector in
each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets
analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables
on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for
the sectorís total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client
deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the
loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts.
Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.
Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the
macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of
the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government
policy and the regulatory environment.
Central to BMIís analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment
Ratings. BMIís unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear,
quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating
in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of
competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our
Country Risk teamís unrivalled analysis of economic, political and operational
The reports also feature profiles of leading banks, covering total assets,
liabilities, client deposits, lending, bond holdings, main products and
services, competitive positioning and ownership structure.
BMI Industry View ... 7Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators . 7Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, February 2016 . . . 7Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%) . 7Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016 . . 8Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020 . . . 8SWOT ...... 9Commercial Banking .... 9Political . 11Economic ........ 12Operational Risk ....... 13Industry Forecast .. 14Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index ........ 19Developed States Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index ...... 19Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index . . . 20Market Overview ... 21Developed States Commercial Banking Outlook .. 21Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2014 21Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP Ratios, 2016 21Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (USDbn) . . . . 22Table: Comparison of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016 . 23Economic Analysis ..... 24Competitive Landscape . 27Market Structure ....... 27Protagonists ... 27Table: Protagonists In The US Commercial Banking Sector 27Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe ........ 28List Of Banks .. 28Table: Top 50 Bank Holding Companies In Terms Of Total Domestic Deposits 28Company Profile .... 30Bank of America ........ 30Table: Stock Market Indicators . 33Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 33Table: Key Ratios (%) 33Citigroup ........ 34Table: Stock Market Indicators . 36Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 36Table: Key Ratios (%) 37JPMorgan Chase ....... 38Table: Stock Market Indicators . 40Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 41Table: Key Ratios (%) 41US Bancorp ..... 42Table: Stock Market Indicators . 44Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 45Table: Key Ratios (%) 45Wells Fargo ..... 46Table: Stock Market Indicators . 48Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 48Table: Key Ratios (%) 49Global Industry Overview ........ 50Industry Forecast ...... 50The Reserves Penalty 50Mixed Results So Far 53Not Far Enough, Or Too Far Already? .... 58In The End, Negative Rates Unlikely To Become Much More Prevalent ...... 59Table: Negative Interest Rates - Summary 61Demographic Forecast .. 62Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025) . . . . 63Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025) . . . . 63Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025) . 64Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025) 64Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025) . . 65Methodology . 67Industry Forecast Methodology .... 67Sector-Specific Methodology ........ 68Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 69Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators . 70Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 71