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BMI View: As the commodities market recovers and Chile's economy moves back
to a stronger growth trajectory over the medium term, we forecast the consumer
electronics market will move to a faster trajectory. We envisage a CAGR of 5.9%
over 2016-2020, with all three segments expected to be supported by peso
appreciation against the US dollar from 2017, which will boost Chilean household
purchasing power and increase the affordability of imported devices. The impact
could be especially pronounced in the computer hardware and AV markets, where
there was the greatest degree of deferred spending during 2014 and 2015 when
peso depreciation hit sharply.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
-Computer Sales: USD1.05bn in 2016 to USD1.47bn in 2020, a compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% in US dollar terms. Economic upside, but the extent
to which pent-up demand boosts growth will depend on device trends and potential
notebook/tablet replacement spending cannibalisation by smartphones.
-AV Sales: USD782mn in 2016 to USD985mn in 2020, a CAGR of 5.9%. After sales
declined by almost a third from the 2012 peak to 2015, we expect AV demand
growth will accelerate over the medium term, but not return to previous highs as
the digital camera market is on a permanently lower trajectory.
-Handset Sales: USD1.54bn in 2016 to USD1.78bn in 2020, a CAGR of 3.8% in US
dollar terms. Peso appreciation presents upside to smartphone average selling
price 2017-2020, but the underlying trend of depleting smartphone upgrade
opportunity will see spending growth gradually decelerate.