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BMI View: We adopted a less bullish outlook for consumer electronics device
sales growth in the Philippines throughout the medium term in the Q4 update.
This change relies on two factors: a more negative outlook for tablet sales in
the face of competition from smartphone - particularly phablets; and the value
squeeze in the handset segment where vendor competition has resulted in steep
declines in average selling prices. Despite the downward revision we still have
a broadly positive outlook for device sales as incomes rise and forecast value
growth at a CAGR of 3.1% throughout 2016-2020.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
-Computer Sales: USD2.1bn in 2016 to USD2.4bn in 2020, a CAGR of +3.8% in US
dollar terms. Rising incomes in a low penetration rate market means there is
scope for volume growth, but affordable and increasingly powerful smartphones
are a growing threat as Filipinos could simply by-pass the PC era.
-AV Sales: USD997mn in 2016 to USD1.1bn in 2020, CAGR of +3.2%. Digital
migration and rising incomes will drive TV set upgrade demand while
stabilisation of the digital camera market will allow the growth rate to move
higher over the medium term.
-Handset Sales: USD2.7bn in 2016 to USD3.1bn in 2020, a CAGR of +2.6%. In the
short term smartphone boom will continue, but a combination of saturation and
price erosion will act as a brake on growth over the medium term.