Research Report on Supply & Demand of Dairy and Products in China 2014/2015

 Published On: Apr, 2015 |    No of Pages: 179 |  Published By: Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd | Format: PDF
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This Report panoramically expounds the current situation of China dairy industry in 2014, including the production of raw milk and dairy product, dairy consumption, dairy trade, price tendency of raw milk and dairy product, operational condition of China dairy industry, competitive situation of China dairy market, business performance and investment situation of key dairy enterprise, world dairy market trend, production, consumption and trade status of major countries of dairy production and trade, influence of work dairy market environment upon China diary industry, and the forecasting upon the development tendency of China diary industry in 2015.

Introduction

2014 is another important turning point during the development history of dairy industry in China. Characterized in quickening the elimination of traditional free-ranging and rapid development of large scale farming, the entire industry accelerates the transition from extensive quantity growth form to intensive quality efficiency form and from hypernormal disorderly development to steady and orderly development. The Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the CPC has pulled open the prelude of comprehensively deepening the reform in China and also brought significant influence upon the dairy industry in China within predictable several years in the future. On the whole, the challenge with which the dairy industry of China is faced is intensifying, and the opportunity coexists in the meantime.

Seen from the challenge, it is mainly manifested in the following respects: I. China’s CPI index kept on climbing in 2015, price rose. The price for feed, fuel and labor rose comprehensively, so the production cost of raw milk kept on surging, but raw milk price kept on falling during the same period, hence more and more smallholder farms (including small farms) had their cows slaughtered for beef. There was abnormal elimination of dairy cattle and small scale farming had to be abandoned. II. For a long time domestic dairy processing companies have been devoting effort to the fostering of top-end consuming groups, the companies explored the top-end dairy market and invested a lot for quality raw milk, then sell products at high price to consumers. This is the so-called “high input and high output” industrial development mode. So far the top-end marketing strategy of the processing companies has been successful. In recent years the growth of the domestic dairy market has been the growth of the top-end brands, and competition among processing companies is competition of the top-end market. However alongside the signing of the FTA with New Zealand and Australia and the highly open dairy policy on the US and the EU, not only foreign milk powder is seeing enlargement of market share in China, but also UHT milk or even pasteurized milk is flowing into China constantly. Compared with the foreign brands, how is the competitiveness of the domestic top-end brands? We should wait and see. The top-end market, fostered by the domestic dairy companies, may be grabbed by the foreign brands. Also the “high input and high output” mode may has lost the comparative advantage in international competition. Therefore when the market is completely open, the domestic top-end brands are at an inferior position in international competition. III. Many dairy companies readjusted their product structure, reduced the production of medium/low-end products that are in line with the mainstream consumption demand. More high-priced products are made, but the high price restrains the consumption. IV. Dairy import especially whole and skim powder import broke another record in 2014. The large dairy import caused a huge pressure to the domestic counterpart and and serious impact to the market. Also the serious drought in New Zealand in the first half of the year led to slip of raw milk production and considerable growth of price. At the same time the upsurge of raw milk price in Europe, North America and Latin America pushed higher dairy price, so the import price to China was substantially higher year on year, which raised the dairy processing cost based on imported raw materials. V. The frequent dairy quality and safety incidents continued to affect consumers’ confidence on domestic made products (especially infant/young child’s formula milk powder). Such negative impacts shall sustain in 2015. VI. There is more and more pressure from supervision. The dairy industry has always been in the center of public opinion in food safety, epidemic control and environmental pollution. Therefore Government’s supervision shall be more and more intensive and the media and the community would pay more and more attention as well.

Seen from the opportunity, it is mainly manifested in the following respects: I. Huge domestic consumption potential: currently the per capita dairy consumption of the residents is about 30 kg, less than 1/3 of the world average. This is not in line with the growth of per capita income. Meanwhile more and more residents cognize the nutrition value and health-care function of dairy products after two decades of education, but the quality and safety issues concerning dairy products and the too high price affect consumption. II. Apart from the existing supporting policies, the Government shall provide unprecedented support and regulation to the industry in 2015. Preferential policies on assistance to key enterprises including favorable taxation treatment, financial support from both the Central and local government, bank loans, financing at the capital market and land utilization. Meanwhile the threshold for dairy processing was heightened once again. The processing industry was gradually disciplined, competition of the dairy market is being regulated and the margin of processing companies rose, which eased the pressure from the rising production cost to a certain extent. Additionally, The new population policy (two-child policy) in 2014 may help to enlarge the dairy market in the coming years. III. The “Decisions on Primary Issues Concerning Further Deepening the Reform from the CPC Central Committee” points out that if one of the two parents is from a single child family, the couple may have two kids. The peak of birth is foreseen to be postponed till the end of 2017, the number of babies between 0-3 years old shall be 13% more than that before the readjustment of the family planning policy. This shall increase the demand for infant/young child’s formula milk powder by 16 billion yuan. The policy would raise the market demand for infant/young child’s formula milk powder by 10-20%, which is not only favorable to domestic producers but also foreign dairy companies have increased investment in China. IV. Currently the shortage of raw milk supply and the huge dairy consumption potential attract the preference from domestic and foreign capitals. A number of international dairy giants wish to share the cake in the new round of expansion of the dairy industry, which would be favorable to the upgrading of the domestic dairy industry. V.The global economy in 2015 is projected to be better than in 2014 in spite of uncertainties and big disparities among different entities. The global dairy demand shall still be prosperous, especially China and India. Meanwhile the dairy production and supply shall be larger year on year, hence there shall be rising dependence on export. VI.The hardship faced by the developed dairy processing entities brings an opportunity to China’s dairy industry, especially the implementation of the “stepping out” strategy creates an opportunity.

Seen from the market prospect in 2015, domestically, the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the CPC held in November 2013 has pulled open the prelude of comprehensively deepening the reform and also brought significant influence upon the dairy market and industry supervision in China: (1) The population policy of China will be adjusted, a couple having two children is permitted and the quantity of newborns will be increased in 2015 Although the growth rate is hard to be determined accurately, such policy is beneficial for the infant formula industry undoubtedly; (2) Safeguarding and improving people’s livelihood is regarded as one of the focuses concerned by the government, the safety problem of the food including dairy product is expected to be valued and solved unprecedentedly, and the confidence of consumers in domestic dairy product will be shored up hopefully; (3) The Decision of the Third Plenary Session explicitly proposes that the central government will establish the “National Security Council”, “spare no effort to solve the problem of crossing of power and responsibility and duplicate law enforcement, and set up the authoritative and efficient administrative law enforcement system with integration of power and responsibility”, “based on formulating negative list, all kinds of market entities are able to equally enter into the field beyond the list according to law”, “clear and abolish various regulations and behaviors hindering national uniform market and fair competition, prohibit and punish sorts of conducts implementing preferential policy illegally”, etc.. Under this overall background, the original China dairy supervision and related policies are predicted to be adjusted and perfected correspondingly, and the raw milk, dairy industry and market in China will hopefully be further standardized and orderly. Seen globally, the hopeful growth of European and American economy during the adjustment; the promotion of regionalization and globalization, and the tension and conflict in global local area tending relieved, all benefit to inhibit the price of energy product and agricultural product going up too rapidly. The production of raw milk and dairy product in major economic entities is predicted to increase slightly, and the price of dairy product in international market is estimated to tend stable.

Competition of the dairy market shall witness new changes in 2015 alongside the implementation of new polices: (1) market competition shall be competition for integrated strength including brand influence, capital, R&D in new products, marketing, scaled economy and control over quality milk source. Brand is important, but its weight in competitiveness has been weakened. (2) The brand concentration level shall rise further. The new “threshold”, which shall be enforced from 1st May, shall lead to withdrawal from the dairy market at least 1/5 medium/small companies. Large processing companies shall devote effort to the whole industrial chain, especially to the control of quality raw milk supply and R&D on new products. Therefore the concentration level of brands shall climb further. (3) Regarding the utilization of both the domestic and foreign resource and market, processing companies are shifting from the mono “introduction” to both “introduction” and “stepping out”. More companies are foreseen to join in the “stepping out” team in 2015 due to the shortfall of raw milk supply in China. (4) More capital from outside the dairy industry shall enter into China’s dairy industry thanks to the huge demand potential, especially the demand for raw milk, infant/young child’s formula milk powder, cheese and butter.

This Report panoramically expounds the current situation of China dairy industry in 2014, including the production of raw milk and dairy product, dairy consumption, dairy trade, price tendency of raw milk and dairy product, operational condition of China dairy industry, competitive situation of China dairy market, business performance and investment situation of key dairy enterprise, world dairy market trend, production, consumption and trade status of major countries of dairy production and trade, influence of work dairy market environment upon China diary industry, and the forecasting upon the development tendency of China diary industry in 2015.

This Report is the crystallization of collective intelligence of dairy research group of Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants Limited. The senior dairy analysts of dairy research group of BOABC are the members of “thinking bank” in related government departments and associations, who keep good relationship with these departments and associations as well as national key dairy enterprise, correlative industry and enterprise. These resource superiorities provide particularly precious professional support for the composition of this Report, and also guarantee the accuracy, authority, scientificity and perspectiveness of the data cited herein. BOABC believes this Report will be the important reference material for strategic decision-making of domestic and overseas investment company, dairy enterprise, dairy burdening supplier, and related equipment supplier as well as such organizations as guild and research institution.

Introduction 2

Chapter 1 Policy Environment for Dairy Industry in China 17
1.1 Overview 17
1.2 Policy 17
1.2.1 The State Council 17
1.2.2General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People’s Republic of China (AQSIQ) 20
1.2.3 National Health and Family Planning Commission (Ministry of Health) 25
1.2.4 China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) 26
1.2.5Ministry of Finance /The Customs General Administration of the People’s Republic of China 28
1.2.6Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China (MIIT) 29
1.2.7Ministry of Agriculture 31
1.3 Planning 36
1.3.1 China’s Development Outline on Food and Nutrition (2014-2020) 36
1.3.2 “12th-Five Year Plan on National Standards of Food Safety (draft)” 37
1.4 Standards 39
1.4.1 Standard of “Detection of Non-protein Nitrogen (NPN) Content in Milk and Dairy Products for Export” (SN/T3382-2012) 39
1.4.2 Standard on Utilization of Food Nutrition Enriching Agents (GB14880-2012) 40
1.4.3 National Food Safety Standard “GMP of Formula Food for Special Medical Purpose” and “Supplementary Food” (draft) 41

Chapter 2 Dairy Production in China in 2014 43
2.1 Raw Milk Production 43
2.1.1 Overviews 43
2.1.2 Dairy Cattle Inventory 43
2.1.3 Raw Milk Production 44
2.1.4 Regional Layout of Dairy Farming 45
2.1.5 Raw Milk Procurement Price 46
2.1.6 Dairy Cattle Farming Scales 46
2.1.7 Feed Price 48
2.1.8 Dairy Cattle Farming Benefits 48
2.2 Dairy Processing 50
2.2.1 Liquid Milk 50
2.2.2Solid Dairy Products 53
2.2.3 Milk Powder 54
2.2.4 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder 55
2.2.5 Other Solid Products 71

Chapter 3 Trade of Dairy Products and Other Relevant Products in 2014 72
3.1 Dairy Products Import 72
3.1.1 Overview 72
3.1.2 Structure of Import 72
3.2 Milk Powder 73
3.2.1 Import Volume 73
3.2.2 Import Source 74
3.2.3 Import Destination 74
3.2.4 Import Price 75
3.3 Dry Whey 76
3.3.1 Import Volume 76
3.3.2 Import Source 76
3.3.3 Import Destination 77
3.3.4 Import Price 77
3.4 Milk Fat 78
3.4.1 Import Volume 78
3.4.2 Import Source 78
3.4.3 Import Price 79
3.5 Cheese 80
3.5.1 Import Volume 80
3.5.2 Import Source 81
3.5.3 Import Price 82
3.6 Fresh Milk & Cream 83
3.6.1 Import Volume 83
3.6.2 Import Price 84
3.6.3 Origins of Import 85
3.7 Yogurt 86
3.8 Lactose 86
3.9 Milk Protein 87
3.10 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder 88
3.11 Dairy Cattle, Gene Products and Feed 91
3.11.1 Elite-breed Cattle, Frozen Semen 91
3.11.2 Alfalfa 92
3.12 Dairy Export 93
3.12.1 Overview 93
3.12.2 Structure of Dairy Export 93
3.12.3 Fresh Milk & Cream 94

Chapter 4 Dairy Consumption in China in 2012 97
4.1 Overview 97
4.2 Analysis of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents 98
4.3 Regional Analysis of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents 99
4.3.2 36Large and Medium Cities 99
4.4 Dairy Consumption by Rural Residents 100
4.5 Retail Price for Dairy Products 101
4.5.1 Fresh Milk and Yogurt 101
4.5.2 Milk Powder 102
4.6 Market Capacity for Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder 103
4.6.1 National Market Capacity 103
4.6.2 Market Capacity of Cities in Different Regions 103
4.7 Other Elements Affecting Dairy Prices 104
4.7.1 Price for White Sugar 104
4.7.2 CPI 105
4.7.3 RMB Exchange Rate 106
4.7.4 Petroleum Price 107

Chapter 5 Competition of China’s Dairy Market in 2012 108
5.1 Overview 108
5.2 Raw Milk Market 108
5.3 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder 109
5.3.1 Market Environment 109
5.3.2 Market Share of Main Competitors 110
5.4 Liquid Milk 111

Chapter 6 Key Dairy Processing Companies in 2014 114
6.1 Overview Consolidation of Dairy Companies 114
6.2 Key Companies 114
6.2.1 Yili 114
6.2.2Inner Mongolia Mengniu Dairy Co., Ltd. 118
6.2.3 Bright Dairy 125
6.2.4 Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co., Ltd 128
6.2.5Zhejiang Beingmate Technology Industry & Trade Co., Ltd 130
6.2.6 Huishan Dairy 134
6.2.7 Heilongjiang Feihe Dairy Co., Ltd. 136
6.2.8 Mead Johnson 138
6.2.9 BiosTime 140

Chapter 7 Development of Dairy Processing Industry in China in 2014 143
7.1 Overview 143
7.2 Operational Capability of Dairy Processing Industry 144
7.3 Projections on Supply of China’s Dairy Products in the Coming 2~3 Years 145

Chapter8 World Dairy Market in 2014 147
8.1 Overview 147
8.1.1 Global Economy in 2014 147
7.1.2 Gross Demand for Dairy Products in the World 147
8.1.3 Global Raw Milk and Processed Dairy Production 148
8.1.4 Global Prices of Raw Milk & Dairy Products 154
8.1.5 Prospect of Global Dairy Market in 2015 159
8.2 Dairy Market of Key Dairy Producing and Trading Countries in 2014 159
8.2.1 New Zealand 159
8.2.2 Australia 160
8.2.3 USA 163
8.2.4 EU 166

Chapter 9 Outlook of China’s Dairy Industry in 2015 168
9.1 Overview 168
9.2 Raw Milk Production 170
9.2.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory 170
9.2.2 Milk Production 171
9.2.3 Layout of Dairy Farming 171
9.2.4 Farming Profit 171
9.3 Dairy Processing 172
9.3.1 Main Varieties 172
9.3.2 Other Dairy Products 173
9.4 Dairy Trade 173
9.4.1 Import 173
9.4.2 Export 174
9.5 Price Trend of Raw Milk and Dairy Products 174
9.5.1 Raw Milk 174
9.5.2 Dairy Products 175
9.6 Dairy Consumption 175
9.7 Competition Pattern of Dairy Market 176

Annexes 177

Annex I: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of Raw Milk in China, 2013-2015 177
Annex II: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of WMP in China, 2013-2015 177
Annex III: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of SMP in China, 2013-2015 178
Annex IV: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of Butter & Others Oils/Fats from Milk in China, 2013-2015 178
Annex V: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of Cheese in China, 2013-2015 179


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