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Argentina Infrastructure Report

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Published Date: Nov, 2013
Format: PDF
No of Pages: 66
 
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

We maintain our view that Argentina's construction industry will remain in the red until 2015.
After a sharp contraction in 2012, official data indicates negative growth at 0.5% in H113 and we expect
this trend to continue in 2014. As such, we currently forecast -2.6% real growth for the industry in 2013
before it starts trending upwards at -0.2% in 2014. Our bearish near-term outlook for the sector is
supported by the underlying weakness in the market, a result of fundamental policy and regulatory
constraints. There is some upside potential from residential construction - given strong base effects in place
#NAME?which will contribute with
some stable, but weak, growth. However, this will not be enough to offset the downward trend in the
industry in 2014.
Key developments in the sector:
- Our Country Risk team forecasts that Argentina's economy will slow in 2014, with real GDP growth
falling to 2.5% from an estimated 2.9% in 2013, as currency devaluation pushes inflation higher,
weighing on consumer and government spending. Despite government efforts to halt the rapid price
growth, our country risk team estimates that consumer price inflation remains above 20% in year-on-year
terms.

Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 10
Economic 11
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast 14
Table: Table: Argentina's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017, ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated) 18
Macroeconomic Forecasts 20
Table: Argentina - GDP By Expenditure 26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 28
Market Overview 29
Table: Table: Argentina's Olefins Facilities 30
Table: Table: Argentina's Polyolefins Facilities 30
Table: Table: Argentina's Aromatics Facilities 31
Table: Table: Argentina's Fertiliser Facilities 31
Industry Trends And Developments 32
Company Profile 35
Dow Chemical Company 35
Petrobras 36
Table: Financial Results (ARSmn) 37
YPF 39
Table: Financial Results (ARSmn) 41
Regional Overview 42
Americas Overview 42
Table: Planned PE projects in North America, 2014-2019 44
Latin American Supply Lags Behind Demand 46
Naptha worries 48
Global Industry Overview 50
A Stable 2013, Leading to Growth in 2014? 50
Table: Top 10 ethylene producers, 2013 52
Long-term growth 52
Shale: The Future of Feedstock? 53
Threats to growth 55
Global Oil Product Price Outlook 55
Methodology 56
Crude Price Forecasts 56
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 56
Variance Across Product Markets 56
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 59
Weak Demand Persists 60
Risks To Outlook 61
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 62
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 63
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 66
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 69
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 71
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 73
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 73
Demographic Forecast 77
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 78
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 80
Table: Argentina's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020 80
Methodology 81
Industry Forecast Methodology 81
Risk Reward Rating Methodology 83
Table: Petrochemicals Risk Reward RATING Indicators 84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 86

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