Poland Metals Report

 Published On: Jul, 2015 |    No of Pages: 54 |  Published By: BMI Metals | Format: PDF
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BMI View: The fortunes of Poland's steel and copper sub-sectors are likely to diverge over the next few years as robust growth in steel production levels contrasts with sluggish expansion in copper output. The expansion in domestic autos production and construction activity will provide much of the drive for steel consumption and output, which, in contrasts, Polish copper producers appear to be shifting production increasingly overseas.

We expect the steel industry to be the main driver of growth in Poland's metals sector over 2015 and beyond as a steady rise in domestic consumption generates reliable demand for local steel mills. Data from the World Steel Organisation shows Poland's steel output to have grown by about 11% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the first four months of 2015 and we expect this momentum to carry through the coming quarters. A robust Polish economy will provide an important platform for growth in steel demand through the coming months, with GDP expected to expand by 3.5% in 2015, one of the fastest rates of growth within the EU. Within this picture, we see the autos sector to remain important drivers of steel consumption as consumer spending increases and overseas manufacturers take advantage of lower Polish labour costs. Infrastructure will also be a primary growth driver, with an EU-funded EUR17.5bn investment programme supporting increased levels of steel usage.

In contrast, the outlook for Poland's copper industry is relatively lacklustre with a weak price environment and a lack of investment by domestic firms weighing on output. Copper miners, including industry leader KGHM, are increasingly shifting their focus overseas to North and South America amid declining ore grades and relatively high operating costs. October 2014 saw the company being production at the Sierra Gordon mine in Chile, with the miner aiming to source at least half of its pre-tax revenues from overseas markets by 2020.

BMI Industry View7
Metals SWOT9
Industry Forecast11
Steel: Waiting On An Autos Sector Recovery11
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Poland 2010-2018)15
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Poland 2005-2012)15
Copper: Surplus To Stagnate16
Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)18
Regulatory Development19
Table: Poland - Political Outlook21
Commodities Forecast23
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 201623
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast23
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)23
Long-Term Outlook24
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite25
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon26
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last27
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery28
Risks To Price Forecast28
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts29
Commodity Strategy29
Ferrous Metals29
Non-Ferrous Metals:32
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness32
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary33
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist35
Zinc: No Sustained Gains38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts40
Competitive Landscape41
Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metal Producers42
Company Profile45
Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data47
Company Overview50
Company Strategy50
Latest Financial Results52
Company Details52
Financial Data52
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data52
Cross Checks53

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