Asia - Telecom Forecasts

 Published On: Jan, 2016 |    No of Pages: 61 |  Published By: Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd | Format: PDF
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As Asia moves from voice to data, subscriber growth eases
Providing a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Asia, this market report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments. This edition covers 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in relatively early subscriber growth phases.

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we consider to be the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country and market segment.

The scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.
A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2017 and 2020, with estimates for 2015.

Malaysia - forecast - fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020

Year Lower growth scenario Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) Penetration Subscribers (million) Penetration
2013 3.7 12.6% 3.7 12.6%
2014 (actual) 3.6 12.1% 3.6 12.1%
2015 3.4 11.3% 3.9 13.6%
2017 3.2 10.6% 4.1 13.6%
2020 2.9 8.8% 4.4 13.5%

 
Malaysia - forecast - fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
 
Year Lower growth scenario Higher growth scenario
Subscribers1

(million)

Penetration Subscribers1 (million) Penetration
2013 2.9 10% 2.9 10%
2014 (actual) 3.1 10% 3.1 10%
2015 3.2 10% 3.2 10%
2017 3.6 11% 4.0 12%
2020 4.2 12% 5.5 16%
 
Malaysia - forecast - mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020

Year Lower growth scenario Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) Penetration Subscribers (million) Penetration
2013 43.0 145% 43.0 145%
2014 (actual) 44.9 149% 44.9 149%
2015 45.0 150% 46.0 151%
2017 45.5 150% 50.0 154%
2020 50.0 152% 55.0 166%
1.  Background notes relevant to our market forecasts
2.  Afghanistan
2.1 Forecasts  internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
2.2 Forecasts  mobile subscribers  2015;2017; 2020
2.3 Forecasts  mobile broadband subscribers  2015;2017; 2020
3.  Azerbaijan
3.1 Forecasts  fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
3.2 Forecasts  fixed internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
3.3 Forecasts mobile market  2015; 2017; 2020
4.  Bangladesh
4.1 Forecasts  fixed-line market  2015; 2017; 2020
4.2 Forecasts  internet services  2015; 2017; 2020
4.2.1  Scenario forecasts  fixed broadband subscribers
4.3 Forecasts  mobile services  2015; 2017; 2020
4.3.1  Scenario forecasts
5.  Cambodia
5.1 Forecasts  Broadband services  2015; 2020
5.2 Forecasts  mobile services  2015; 2020
6.  China
6.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers  2013-2018
6.2 Forecast broadband subscribers  2017 - 2020
6.3 Forecast: Mobile Internet subscribers 2015-2020
7.  Georgia
7.1 Forecasts  fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2020
7.2 Forecasts  internet subscribers  2015; 2020
7.3 Forecasts  mobile subscribers  2015; 2020
8.  Hong Kong
8.1 Forecasts  Fixed broadband subscribers  2016; 2020
8.2 Forecast total mobile and 3G/LTE subscribers  2016; 2020
9.  India
9.1 Forecasts - fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
9.2 Forecasts- internet services  2015; 2017: 2020
9.3 Forecasts - Mobile services  2015; 2017; 2020
10.  Indonesia
10.1 Forecasts  fixed-line market: 2015; 2020
10.2 Forecasts  internet services  2015; 2020
10.3 Forecasts  mobile market: 2015; 2020
11.  Japan
11.1 Forecasts  broadband subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
11.2 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2018-2020
12.  Kazakhstan
12.1 Forecasts  fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2020
13.  Kyrgyzstan
13.1 Forecasts  fixed-line market  2015; 2020
14.  Laos
14.1 Forecasts  fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
14.2 Forecasts  internet services - 2015; 2020
14.3 Forecasts  mobile services - 2015; 2020
15.  Macau
15.1 Forecasts  fibre broadband subscribers  2016; 2020
16.  Malaysia
16.1 Forecasts  fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
16.2 Forecasts  Fixed broadband internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
16.3 Forecasts  mobile services  2015; 2017; 2020
17.  Nepal
17.1 Forecasts  fixed-line market  2015; 2017; 2020
17.2 Forecasts  Internet services  2015; 2017; 2020
17.3 Forecasts  mobile market  2015; 2017; 2020
18.  Pakistan
18.1 Forecasts  fixed line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
18.2 Forecasts  Internet market  2015; 2017; 2020
18.3 Forecasts  mobile subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
19.  Philippines
19.1 Forecasts  fixed-line market  2015; 2020
19.2 Forecasts  Internet services  2015; 2020
19.3 Forecasts  mobile services  2015; 2020
20.  South Korea
20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers  2013 - 2015; 2018
20.2 Forecast broadband subscribers  2013 - 2015; 2019
20.3 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2014- 2016; 2019
21.  Sri Lanka
21.1 Forecasts  fixed-line market  2015; 2017; 2020
21.2 Forecasts  Internet services  2015; 2017; 2020
21.3 Forecasts  mobile services  2015; 2017; 2020
22.  Taiwan
22.1 Forecasts  FTTH subscribers  2016; 2018; 2022
22.1.1  Scenario 1  higher broadband subscriber growth
22.1.2  Scenario 2  lower broadband subscriber growth
22.2 Forecast LTE mobile subscribers  2015 (actual); 2017, 2021
23.  Thailand
23.1 Forecasts  fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2020
23.2 Forecasts  internet subscribers  2015; 2020
23.3 Forecasts  mobile subscribers  2015; 2020
24.  Uzbekistan
24.1 Forecasts  fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
24.2 Forecasts  fixed broadband internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
24.3 Forecasts  mobile subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
25.  Vietnam
25.1 Forecasts  fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
25.2 Forecasts  fixed broadband subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  1  Afghanistan - Forecast - fixed internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  2  Afghanistan - Forecast mobile subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  3  Afghanistan - Forecast  mobile broadband subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  4  Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  5  Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  6  Azerbaijan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  7  Bangladesh - Forecast fixed line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  8  Bangladesh - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  9  Bangladesh - Forecast mobile subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  10  Cambodia - Forecast fixed broadband subscriber growth  2015; 2020
Table  11  Cambodia - Forecast mobile subscriber growth  2015; 2020
Table  12  China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration  lower band: 2014; 2018
Table  13  China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration  higher band: 2014; 2018
Table  14  China - Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration  higher band: 2017; 2020
Table  15  China - Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration  lower band: 2017; 2020
Table  16  China - Forecast Mobile Internet subscribers lower band forecast  2015; 2020
Table  17  China - Forecast Mobile Internet subscribers higher band forecast  2015; 2020
Table  18  Georgia - Forecast fixed line subscribers  2015; 2020
Table  19  Georgia - Forecast fixed internet subscribers  2015; 2020
Table  20  Georgia - Forecast mobile subscribers  2015; 2020
Table  21  Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: - 2016; 2020
Table  22  Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: - 2016; 2020
Table  23  Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast  2016; 2020
Table  24  Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast  2016; 2020
Table  25  India - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  26  India - Forecast fixed internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  27  India - Forecast mobile subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  28  Indonesia - Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2020
Table  29  Indonesia - Forecast of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2020
Table  30  Indonesia - Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2020
Table  31  Japan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration  2018; 2020
Table  32  Japan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration  2018; 2020
Table  33  Kazakhstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2020
Table  34  Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2020
Table  35  Laos - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2020
Table  36  Laos - Forecast fixed internet subscribers  2015; 2020
Table  37  Laos - Forecast mobile subscribers  2015; 2020
Table  38  Macau - Scenario 1  Higher fibre broadband subscriber growth
Table  39  Macau - Scenario 2  Lower fibre broadband subscriber growth
Table  40  Malaysia - Forecast fixed-line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  41  Malaysia - Forecast - fixed broadband internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  42  Malaysia - Forecast mobile subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  43  Nepal - Forecast fixed line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  44  Nepal - Forecast fixed internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  45  Nepal - Forecast mobile subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  46  Pakistan - Forecast fixed line subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  47  Pakistan - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  48  Pakistan - Forecast mobile subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  49  Philippines - Forecast fixed line subscribers  2015; 2020
Table  50  Philippines - Forecast internet subscribers  2015; 2020
Table  51  Philippines - Forecast mobile subscribers  2015; 2020
Table  52  South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2015; 2018
Table  53  South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2015; 2018
Table  54  South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration  higher band: 2013 - 2015; 2019
Table  55  South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration  lower band: 2013 - 2015; 2019
Table  56  South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast  2014 - 2016; 2019
Table  57  South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast  2014 - 2016; 2019
Table  58  Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  59  Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  60  Sri Lanka - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  61  Taiwan - Forecast FTTH broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2016, 2018; 2022
Table  62  Taiwan - Forecast FTTH broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2016, 2018; 2022
Table  63  Taiwan - Forecast LTE mobile subscribers and penetration  higher band: 2017; 2021
Table  64  Taiwan - Forecast LTE mobile subscribers and penetration  lower band: 2017; 2021
Table  65  Thailand - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate  2015; 2020
Table  66  Thailand - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration  2015; 2020
Table  67  Thailand - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table  68  Uzbekistan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  69  Uzbekistan - Forecasts - fixed broadband internet subscribers  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  70  Uzbekistan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  71  Vietnam - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2017; 2020
Table  72  Vietnam - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates  2015; 2017; 2020

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