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Indian Crude oil Industry

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Indian Crude oil Industry
Published Date: Feb, 2013
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

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According to Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India has a total recoverable crude oil reserve of 757.4 million metric tonnes (mmt) as on March 31, 2012. This implies a reserve life of just 20 years taking FY12 crude oil production of 38.1 mmt. India has 0.3 per cent of oil and gas resources of the world and 18 per cent of the world’s population. India’s crude oil consumption has grown at a CAGR of 4.3 per cent for the last 10 years driven primarily by the transportation sector. As crude oil supply has been largely stagnant, Indian crude oil industry continues to remain highly import dependent with imports constituting about 74 per cent of demand in FY 2012. India’s oil demand is expected to grow at a steady rate of 4.6 per cent over FY 2014-16. However, crude oil production is not expected to keep pace with rising demand (expected to grow at 4.3 per cent over the same period). Thus, India is expected to continue to rely on imported crude for more than 75 per cent of its needs in near term.

The report on the ‘Indian Crude Oil Industry’ gives valuable insights intobasics of the industry, infrastructure, regulations, oil pricing, current global and domestic crude oil market scenario etc. The report also provides CARE Research’s outlook and insight into future trends in the industry with respect to key demand-supply metrics, international oil price trend, supply outlook from key domestic fields in India. For this analysis, CARE Research has indigenously developed its Oil Intensity Model to forecast global oil demand over the next three years. The model involves CARE Research’s quantitative and qualitative judgment on oil intensities of over 70 countries and has utilized GDP forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On the supply side, CAREResearch has used a combination of the decline rate methodology and its Oil Fields Database comprising over 230 new fields that are expected to come on-stream in the next three years.

The report is indispensable for any company in the oil industry, banks/ FIs, policy makers, research and academic organizations, other international and national agencies etc. Additionally, the four quarterly updates, from the date of subscription, alongwith this report would form a potent tool for the subscribers to keep abreast of the happenings in the industry.


SECTION-I CARE Research’s OUTLOOK
Methodology
Crude oil demand estimation
Crude oil supply estimation
Demand
Global oil demand to remain moderate
OECD consumption set to decline
BRIC to be the next power house
Supply
Non-OPEC supply: US, Canada, Brazil to lead the way
Non-OPEC supply growth to reduce OPEC oil demand
OPEC spare capacity to rise to 6.0 MMbpd by 2015
Demand & Supply -India
Crude oil demand outlook
Crude oil supply outlook
Prices
Demand side factors
Supply side factors

SECTION-II INDUSTRY SECTION
Introduction
Overview
Oil Formation
Characteristics of Crude Oil
Uses of Crude Oil
Crude oil reserves estimation methods
E&P Basics
Exploration
Production
Oil recovery techniques
Types of offshore rigs
Offshore drilling and production platforms
Infrastructure
International Crude Tanker Market
Introduction
Global Seaborne trade
Average age of tankers
Demolition of tankers
Freight
Indian Shipping Industry & Policy for Crude Oil Import
Indian Shipping Industry
Regulatory Framework
Background Import Policy
Current scenario
Indian Crude Oil Pipelines
Introduction
Product sequencing
Capacity Utilization
Advantage of pipelines
Pipeline Expenditure
Existing pipelines
Future Pipelines
Regulatory Guidelines
Regulatory Framework
Regulatory structure and key legislations
Regulatory framework
Regulatory bodies
New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP)
Upstream accounting treatment
Production Sharing
Introduction
Model PSC flow chart
Impact of oil price on financial and operational performance
Production Sharing – INDIA
Background
Fiscal terms
Concession regime
Production Sharing Contracts
Comparison of PSC Terms globally
Strategic Petroleum Reserves
Current state
Future SPR project
Outlook
International Market Scenario
World Reserves
Consumption
Demand
Supply
Geo-politics
Indian Market Scenario
History
Consumption
Supply
Imports
Crude Oil Pricing
History
Oil pricing basics
Indian crude oil pricing

SECTION-III COMPANY PROFILES
Company Profile
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)
ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL)
Oil India Limited (OIL)
Cairn India Limited (CIL)
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HOEC)

SECTION-IV ANNEXURES
Different Grades of Crude Oils and their Key Characteristics
Volume Conversion Factors: Crude
India’s Total Primary Energy Consumption and Fuel-Portfolio Breakdown
India's country-wise crude oil imports from FY02 to FY12
PELs Operated by Oil India as on 01.04.2012
PELs operated by ONGC as on 01.04.2012
PRE-NELP & NELP Blocks with Pvt. / JV Companies as on 01.04.2012
Details of oil & gas discoveries under NELP / Pre-NELP as on 31.03.2012

List of Graphs

SECTION-I CARE Research’s OUTLOOK

Demand
World GDP growth (%)
China GDP growth (%)
Chinese oil demand
Supply
Iran oil production
OPEC Spare capacity
Demand & Supply –India
India’s share of global primary energy consumption
India’s primary energy consumption versus World
Domestic refinery market share
India’s petroleum product consumption break-up
India’s projected crude oil consumption
Status of sedimentary basins in India
India’s dependence on crude imports
Crude imports value
India’s crude oil production break-up
Cairn’s Rajasthan field projected ramp up
ONGC’s marginal fields projected output
Prices
Brent crude price
China GDP growth (%)
China’s Industrial Production growth (%)
US GDP growth
Implied Chinese total stock change (MMbpd)
OPEC oil production and spare capacity
Incremental oil supply cost curve

SECTION-II INDUSTRY SECTION
Introduction
Typical US Refinery Product Slate: 2008
Schematic Diagram of Reserve Classification
E&P Basics
Crude oil processing flow chart
Reservoir pressure maintenance techniques
Secondary Oil Recovery: Water Flooding
Enhanced Oil Recovery
Infrastructure
International Crude Tanker Market
Oil Tanker
Classification of Shipping Carriers
Historical Seaborne Trade
Demolition trend- all vessels
Crude tanker wise demolition Break-up (2004-Nov2012)
Comparison of deliveries & demolition
Crude oil tankers freight rates versus oil prices
Indian Crude Oil Pipelines
Pipelines System: Crude Oil Transportation
Pipelines System: Product Transportation
Optimal Pipeline Diameter versus Throughput
Product Sequencing in Product Pipeline
How Terminal Capacity can be Bottleneck
Capacity Utilization of Crude Oil and Product Pipelines (FY2010-11)
Energy Intensity for Various Mode of Transport
Break-up of pipeline capital expenditure (Liquid Pipeline & Gas Pipeline)
Regulatory Framework
Regulatory structure and key legislations
Regulatory framework
Comparison of Blocks awarded under NELP regime
Production Sharing
Model PSC Flow Chart
Production Sharing – INDIA
Royalty Rates in Various Countries (%)
Cost Oil Limits in Various Countries (%)
Corporate Income Tax in Various Countries (%)
Strategic Petroleum Reserves
Strategic Petroleum Reserves: Consumption and Import Cover Days
Major Oil Supply Disruptions (MMbpd)
International Market Scenario
Global Oil Proved Reserves and Reserve to Production Ratios (As of 2011)
Global Oil Consumption (as of 2011)
 Major Oil Consuming Countries
Country-wise breakdown of Asia-pacific consumption (%)
Country-wise consumption growth of Asia-pacific countries 2005-11
Global GDP growth vs. oil demand growth
Correlation between global GDP & oil demand
Seasonality in Oil Demand
Historic world crude oil production
Indian Market Scenario
Globalfuel portfolio for total primary energy consumption in 2011 (%)
Global GDP per capita versus Energy Consumption per capita (2009)
Company-wise historic crude oil production
India’s Crude Oil Imports
Country-wise crude oil imports during 2011-12
Built-up of India’s Oil Import Bill
Crude Oil Pricing
Historic Movement in Crude Oil Prices and Reasons
Historic Composition of Indian Basket of Crude Oil
Historical Petroleum under-recoveries
Petroleum subsidy sharing
Gross vs. net realizations

SECTION-III COMPANY PROFILE
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)
Shareholding Pattern
Crude Oil Price Realization (FY08-9M FY13)
Capex
ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL)
Capex
Oil India Limited (OIL)
Shareholding Pattern
Crude Oil Price Realization (FY08-9M FY13)
Capex
Cairn India Limited (CIL)
Shareholding Pattern
Capex
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HOEC)
Shareholding Pattern
Capex

List of Tables

SECTION-I CARE Research’s OUTLOOK
Methodology
Decline rate assumption
Demand
Global Oil Demand Forecast
Oil Demand Forecast - OECD North America
Oil Demand Forecast - OECD Europe
Capacity Rationalization/Closures in Europe
Oil Demand Forecast - OECD Asia
Region wise Global Oil Demand
Supply
Non-OPEC Production Growth
Global oil demand supply scenario
Demand & Supply –India
Future Greenfield and Brownfield refinery projects
Target vs. actual production
India crude oil supply outlook

SECTION-II INDUSTRY SECTION
Introduction
Various Grades of Crude Oils
Products derived from crude oil
Infrastructure
International Crude Tanker Market
Crude Tankers : Categorization on basis of Physical Parameters
World seaborne trade 2006-2011, by type of cargo (million tonnes)
World-wide average age distribution of crude oil tankers, as of January
2012 (Percentage of total ships and dwt)
Types of shipping chartering
Indian Shipping Industry & Policy for Crude Oil Import
India: Summary of Coastal & Overseas Tonnage as on December 2011
Major Acts Governing Indian Shipping Industry
Sector wise present oil procurement procedure
Indian Crude Oil Pipelines
Notional Savings in Pipeline Mode of Transport per annum
Average capital expenditure for liquid pipelines (Rs.crore/km)
Average capital expenditure for gas pipelines (Rs.crore/km)
Break-up of operating expenses of crude oil pipeline
Summary of existing crude oil pipelines in India
Summary of future crude oil pipelines in India
Petroleum product pipelines categorization
Regulatory Framework
Regulatory structure and key legislations
Summary of NELP Exploration Blocks
Company-wise Number of Discoveries under NELP Regime
Comparison with International Standards
Production Sharing
Various Production Sharing Mechanism
Risk Reward Profile for PS Contracts
PSC Sensitivity Analysis for Different Capital Expenditure Levels
Production Sharing – India
Concession Agreements vs. Production Sharing Agreements
Historical crude oil royalty and cess rates
Major Fiscal Terms for Various Regimes of PSC
Comparison of Fiscal Terms Globally
Production Sharing Regime in Various Countries
Strategic Petroleum Reserves
Capital Expenditure Break-down for SPR facilities in India
Strategic Petroleum Reserves Held by other Countries
International Market Scenario
OPEC’s crude oil reserve addition during 1980s
Region wise share in consumption (%)
OPEC Percent Compliance with Volume Cuts (%)
Reserves and Production snapshot of major geopolitically affected
countries
Indian Market Scenario
India’s GDP growth rate versus demand growth of petroleum products
Refinery wise crude oil consumption pattern
India’s crude oil production break-up, company wise and state wise
Snapshot of X and XI Plan Period Crude Oil Production
XII Plan Target
Region-wise crude oil imports
Crude Oil Pricing
Sample adjustments in oil prices for quality differential
Four cut product yields for different crude oils
Pricing and conversion factors under 5-cut product pricing
Pricing and Conversion Factors Under 5-Cut Product Pricing
Historic Indian Crude Oil Prices

SECTION-III COMPANY PROFILE
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)
Key Financials
Reserves
Production
Unaudited Results
ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL)
Key Financials
Reserves
Production
Unaudited Results
Oil India Limited (OIL)
Key Financials
Reserves
Production
Unaudited Results
Cairn India Limited (CIL)
Key Financials
Reserves
Production
Unaudited Results
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HOEC)
Key Financials
Reserves
Production
Unaudited Results


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