Malaysia Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 103 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Malaysia's long-term crude oil production will be hit as investment in deepwater explorationand production is curtailed amid low oil prices. The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates astring of projects over 2016-2020 that will boost Malaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cutsby Petronas will result in reduced production post-2020.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

We forecast Malaysia's crude oil production to remain on a downtrend over 2016 to 2025. Weak oilprices limit the attractiveness of boosting output, as demonstrated by Petronas' large spending cuts forthe coming four years. Furthermore, we do not expect new final investment decisions in deepwater andmarginal projects in the next several years given their high breakeven cost.

We expect refined fuels production to remain relatively stable over the coming years, rising in 2020 withthe start of the 300,000b/d RAPID refinery.

Malaysia's oil consumption will grow at a slower rate over the next decade as a result of weakeningeconomic growth and falling energy intensity weighing on demand. The consumption mix will remaindominated by diesel and gasoline over our forecast period.

With the fall in crude oil production and the coming online of the RAPID oil refinery in 2020, weforecast that Malaysia will become a net crude oil importer by 2020. The country will remain a netimporter of refined products throughout our forecast period.

The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates a string of projects over 2016-2020 that will boostMalaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cuts by Petronas will result in reduced productionpost-2020.

New production from a pipeline of gas projects coming online during 2016-2020 will result in stagnatingnet gas exports over the first half of our forecast period. Thereafter net exports will decline sharply on theback of falling domestic production.
BMI Industry View ....... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2014-2020)                  7
SWOT .. 9
Industry Forecast ...... 11
Upstream Exploration ......... 11
Latest Updates ..... 11
Structural Trends . 11
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011                 . . . . . 15
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014               . . . . 17
Upstream Projects . 19
Table: Malaysia Major Upstream Projects                   . 19
Upstream Production - Oil ... 24
Latest Updates ..... 24
Structural Trends . 24
Table: Risk-Sharing Contracts Awarded                   . . . 27
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)                  . . . . 28
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)                  . . . . 28
Upstream Production - Gas .. 29
Latest Updates ..... 29
Structural Trends . 29
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)                  . . . 32
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)                  . . . 33
Refining .. 34
Latest Updates ..... 34
Structural Trends . 34
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)            36
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)            36
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 37
Latest Updates ..... 37
Structural Trends . 37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Malaysia 2014-2019)               . . . 39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Malaysia 2020-2025)               . . . 39
Gas Consumption .. 40
Latest Updates ..... 40
Structural Trends . 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019)                  . 42
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025)                  . 42
Trade - Oil ........... 43
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts . 43
Latest Updates ..... 43
Structural Trends . 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2020)                 . . 45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)                 . . 46
Fuels Trade Forecasts ....... 46
Latest Updates ..... 46
Structural Trends . 46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019)                . . . . 48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)                . . . . 48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) ........ 49
Latest Updates ..... 49
Structural Trends . 49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019)                  . . 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)                  . . 55
Industry Risk Reward Index .. 56
Malaysia Risk/Reward Index . 56
Upstream Index - Overview . 56
Upstream Index - Rewards .. 56
Upstream Index - Risks ...... 56
Downstream Index - Overview .......... 57
Asia - Risk/Reward Index ..... 57
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index                   57
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index                   . 60
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index                  . . . . 62
Market Overview ....... 64
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 64
Oil Refineries ...... 64
Table: Refineries In Malaysia                     . . 64
Existing Refineries ............ 65
Planned Refineries ............ 66
Proposed Refineries ........... 67
Oil Storage Facilities ......... 67
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia                   . . 68
Oil Terminals/Ports ........... 70
Oil Pipelines ....... 71
LNG Liquefaction Terminals ............ 72
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals                  . . . 72
LNG Import Terminals ....... 73
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities                  . . 73
Gas Pipelines ...... 74
Malaysia Energy Market Overview ..... 75
Regulatory Structure .......... 75
Fiscal Regime ...... 77
Table: Malaysia - Upstream Tax Regime                   . . . 77
Licensing Regime . 77
Table: Malaysia - Contracts and Licensing Regime                 . . . . 77
Competitive Landscape ......... 79
Company Profile ........ 81
Chevron .. 81
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)                    . 81
ExxonMobil .......... 82
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia                   83
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)                    . 83
Petronas . 84
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia                   85
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Malaysia                  . . . 85
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)                    . 86
Shell ....... 87
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia                   88
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Malaysia                  . . . 88
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)                    . 88
Regional Overview .... 89
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook ....... 89
Glossary ........ 96
Table: Glossary Of Terms                      96
Methodology . 98
Industry Forecast Methodology ........ 98
Source  100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ..... 100
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index                 102
Table: Weighting                       . . 103
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