Russia Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 115 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Oil production continues to outperform as a weak rouble allows for maintained capex and lower operating costs. Gas production has been steady though exports, particularly to Europe, are up 14% over H116.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's oil & gas sector are:
-Crude oil and condensate production averaged 10.87mn b/d in H116.
-Lukoil has begun development drilling on the Vladimir Filanovsky field in the Caspian Sea and is targeting first oil by the end of the year. Plateau production is due to reach 120,000b/d.
-Rosneft is moving forward with exploration in the Lisyansky and potentially the Magadan-1 block in the Sea of Okhotsk over the summer.
-BP (49%) has committed up to USD300mn to the Yermak-Neftegaz exploration joint venture with Rosneft (51%). The focus of exploration will be Yenisey-Khatanga and Western Siberia.
-Russian gas production over H116 was 4bcm lower than H115.
-Gas exports to Europe, however, increased 10.9bcm to 84.9bcm in H116.
-Train 1 of the Yamal LNG project is reportedly 70% complete and the USD19bn financing has been approved.
-The finance minister expects oil export duty to drop to the planned 30% in 2017, from 42% currently.
-Overall refinery throughput has reduced around 3.3% in H116 over H115.
-Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel production remains stable, though fuel oil output has reduced over H116 as deeper refining capabilities improve.

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT .. 8
Oil & Gas SWOT ..... 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration ...... 10
Latest Updates ..... 10
Upstream Projects . 12
Table: Russia - Major Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 33
Latest Updates ..... 33
Structural Trends . 33
Table: Russia Oil Commitments To China 35
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2014-2019) . . . . 37
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2020-2025) . . . . 37
Upstream Production - Gas ......... 38
Latest Updates ..... 38
Structural Trends . 38
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2014-2019) . . . 42
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2020-2025) . . . 42
Refining ..... 43
Latest Updates ..... 43
Structural Trends . 43
Table: Major Refinery Upgrades Completed And Underdevelopment . 45
Table: Crude And Fuel Export Duty Changes Now Frozen At 2015 Levels 46
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2014-2019) . . . . 47
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2020-2025) . . . . 47
Refined Fuels Consumption ......... 48
Latest Updates ..... 48
Structural Trends . 48
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2014-2019) 50
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2020-2025) 50
Gas Consumption .. 51
Latest Updates ..... 51
Structural Trends . 51
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2014-2019) . 53
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2020-2025) . 53
Trade - Oil . 54
Latest Updates ..... 54
Structural Trends: Crude Oil Trade ....... 54
Table: Russia - Oil Commitments To China . . . 56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) . 56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) . 57
Structural Trends: Refined Products Trade ....... 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) . . 59
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) . . 60
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .. 60
Latest Updates ..... 60
Structural Trends . 60
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) . . 64
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) . . 64
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 65
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ....... 65
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 65
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices . . . . 66
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 69
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market . 69
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 72
Russia Risk/Reward Index . 73
Upstream Index - Rewards ......... 73
Upstream Index - Risks ... 73
Table: Russia RRI 74
Downstream Index ......... 74
Market Overview . 75
Russia Energy Market Overview ... 75
Regulatory Structure ....... 75
Fiscal Regime ...... 75
Table: Export Duty . . . . 77
Licensing Regime . 78
Oil & Gas Infrastructure ... 80
Oil Refineries ...... 80
Table: Major Refineries - Russia . . . . 80
Table: Russian Refinery Upgrades . . 82
Oil Terminals/Ports ........ 82
Table: Russian Oil Ports . . . 82
LNG Liquefaction Terminals ...... 83
Table: Current And Proposed LNG Terminals 83
LNG Import Terminal ..... 84
Planned Oil & Gas Pipelines ...... 84
Table: Major Proposed International Pipelines . . . . 84
Competitive Landscape 85
Table: Russian Refining Capacity By Player . . 86
Company Profile .. 87
Gazprom .... 87
Latest Updates ..... 87
Table: Major Current Assets . . . . 88
Table: Over 200bcm Of Future Growth Assets 89
Table: Gazprom - Key Financial Data . . . 89
Rosneft ...... 91
Latest Updates ..... 91
Table: Major Assets . . . 92
Table: Rosneft Revenues & EBITDA, RUBbn . 93
Lukoil ........ 95
Latest Updates ..... 95
Table: Major Assets . . . 96
Table: Key Financial Data . 97
Novatek ..... 98
Latest Updates ..... 98
Table: Major Assets . . . 99
Table: Novatek - Key Financial Data . . . . 100
Regional Overview ...... 101
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview ..... 101
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices ...... 101
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles . 102
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing . 103
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent . 104
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions . . 105
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 106
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 107
Glossary ... 108
Table: Glossary Of Terms 108
Methodology ...... 110
Industry Forecast Methodology 110
Source ... 112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ......... 112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 114
Table: Weighting . . . . 115
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